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[TOWN WINS] ASB Halloween Mafia

Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Okay, lots of things here. Thanks for the answer, Negrek.

So assuming MF is right instead of me about how the bus driver works, Gzhoom basically cleared Cynder's name. Why would Cynder then say that he blocked Gzhoom? Cynder chose to speak up now instead of earlier - that seems weird. Why speak up against something that's confirming you innocent?

I do think now that Cynder is the untruthful one here, but I'm wondering if he could be a miller or something that wins if we lynch him.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

To my knowledge, MF's action on me n0 was not harmful. I'll leave it to him if he thinks it's safe to say more.

I also find the action order stuff a little confusing, but I guess from Negrek's post we just won't have a definitive answer about the action order resolution until the game ends, so I don't think approaching the situation from that angle is productive. But it's not like that's the only factor in play here - we also have Kratos's results from n0 clearly contradicting Cynder's supposed action that night.

I feel like Kratos's story is a lot easier to believe, because they're confirmed town by ILS. It seems like unless there's another roleblocker who happened to stop Cynder's action n0, the only way the situation works out is either Cynder isn't telling the truth about something, which probably means they are mafia, or Kratos's role works such that targeting someone who was roleblocked still returns their original target/the person they were intending to target. Just in case that's the simple explanation for the contradiction here, could you check whether that happens/how your ability interacts with your target being roleblocked, Kratos? It's always possible Negrek can't reveal that information to you, but we can hope - I'm going to hold off on voting anyone until that's confirmed.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

So I've tried to work through the action resolution stuff now that we have a bit more information, and I'll go into that in a minute, but let me just say first that sure, Keldeo, I can try to confirm with Negrek.

First of all, here are the statements we have about N2:

1. ILS says he investigated RedneckPhoenix (who flipped town). He didn't share his result, but we can assume it was "innocent" (i.e., not surprising given the flip).
2. Eifie says she redirected Sandstone-Shadow to Cynder.
3. Gzhoom (if we're understanding his role correctly) says he caused actions targeting ILS to target Sandstone-Shadow and vice-versa.
4. Cynder says he roleblocked Gzhoom.
5. Negrek says night action resolution is fixed-order and we're not getting any more info until the game ends. Based on SS's earlier attempts to puzzle this out, that means there are two possible scenarios.

Gzhoom goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> my potential target -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> my potential target
Me -> my potential target -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> RedneckPhoenix -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> Cynder

Eifie goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> RedneckPhoenix -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> Cynder
Me -> my potential target -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> Cynder -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> RedneckPhoenix
Click to expand...

However, these assumptions (and MF stating he agreed with them) were made before Cynder claimed to have roleblocked Gzhoom. So if Cynder is telling the truth, Gzhoom's action is irrelevant, and this is what would've happened in both scenarios:

Gzhoom goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix (nothing else happens because Gzhoom was blocked)
SS -> her potential target -(Gzhoom was blocked; Eifie redirects her to Cynder)> Cynder

Eifie goes first:
ILS -(nothing happens because Gzhoom was blocked)> RedneckPhoenix
SS -> her potential target -(Eifie redirects her to Cynder)> Cynder (nothing else happens because Gzhoom was blocked)

Either way, if Cynder is in fact a roleblocker and is not lying about targeting Gzhoom last night, ILS getting an "innocent" result no longer says anything about Cynder's alignment at all.

If Cynder is telling the truth, however, that also raises the question of how MF can claim his action was successful. The possibilities that allow for both of them being honest include:

1. Someone redirected Cynder's action to someone other than MF, or stopped his action outright. So far no alleged redirection roles have claimed to have monkeyed with Cynder on N0, though. We probably also don't have two straight roleblockers, so it's likely only RedneckPhoenix could've "blocked" him, and RP said he blocked Flora N0.
2. Someone protected MF from the block. The only evidence we have of such a role existing is RedneckPhoenix, who did claim to have targeted MF, but that targeting happened the night *after* N0 and also RedneckPhoenix probably would've stopped MF's action from happening anyway. There could be something else, though.
3. MF's action is unblockable for some reason.

Given the redirection monkeying and the general rarity of unblockable night roles, all of those seem kinda unlikely. None of them are impossible, though. There's also the "MF is lying about his action going through" option, but I know he did at least attempt a targeting action, so I'm still inclined to believe him.

If Cynder is lying about his role and/or targeting, then Gzhoom's action did go through and we're back to SS's original scenarios, which we can't meaningfully choose between because we don't know the action resolution order, and we still don't know Cynder's alignment for certain.

Either way, ultimately I don't think it's safe to count on him being innocent—and really, vanilla roleblockers are mafia more often than not, as there are usually more town power roles than mafia power roles (or mafiosi at all) and a town roleblocker firing blindly has a higher chance of hindering town/uselessly hitting a vanilla townie than hindering mafia—so my vote stands.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

To be clear, my initial attempts to puzzle things out assumed that Gzhoom's actions affected ILS's and my potential targets, not ILS and me - the way it's sounding now is that the bus driver wouldn't have affected our potential actions, but would have rather affected potential actions directed at me and him. So I think my initial scenarios might be wrong - if Gzhoom was telling the truth and was not roleblocked, Eifie would have meant to target me but actually targeted ILS, and ILS would have inspected Cynder and flipped innocent. I'm assuming there were no other actions directed at me and ILS last night (we haven't heard anything so far). The only way, it seems, that that wouldn't be the case is if Cynder is telling the truth.

If Cynder is lying in any way that means Gzhoom didn't get roleblocked by him, then Cynder is innocent and probably some kind of alien/miller/role that wants to be lynched by the town.

It may very well be that we have no other good alternative. But that's in the back of my mind.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Well, well! Putting on the pressure works, eh? This discussion sure is looking a lot more interesting than when I'd last left it. I'll be sure to provide one of those lengthy analysis posts when it's less 3 AM and I have less research models homework in my brain.

I do have one quick question that may become relevant to this analysis, though: Kratos Aurion, is your N0 information "Metallica Fanboy targeted Keldeo", or is it simply "your target targeted Keldeo"? (I did target Keldeo N0, but a little disambiguation goes a long way when we apparently have as much action-disruption as we pretensely do.)
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

My information specifies the name of my target, so yes, it reads like "Metallica Fanboy targeted Keldeo". Doesn't mean I haven't been blocked or monkeyed, just like at the moment I don't know if there's a difference between "Name didn't target anyone" and "Name was unable to target anyone/carry out their action" (I did send the clarification request, though, so we'll see if that gets answered), but yeah, I do get a name.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Eifie said:
Well, with two people backing this up, I'm okay with going for Cynder.



Gzhoom, could you clarify these two things?
Click to expand...

My role doesn’t have “bus driver” anywhere. I’m a “prankster”, and the wording used by Negrek is that once a night I can swap the consequences of two players. Meaning that, for instance, if I were to target Butterfree and Cynder, and someone investigated Butterfree, they would see Cynder’s alignment instead (assuming that my action happens before the investigator’s, that is.)
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Heard back from Negrek and was told two things:

-I see the final result of my target's action, not their intent, so if, for example, MF had originally targeted Keldeo but had bounced to Butterfree, I would see that he'd visited Butterfree.
-However, I don't see the difference between blocking and no action; they both read as no action.

Since I got a result on N0 rather than no action, that means that MF's action did in fact go through. So Cynder is not a roleblocker, or he didn't target MF, or he is a roleblocker who targeted MF but MF was able to avoid the block for whatever reason. Those are the options now.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Okay, yeah, Cynder seems like our best bet.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Okay, given Kratos's results, Cynder's looking really suspicious.

Kratos Aurion said:
Since I got a result on N0 rather than no action, that means that MF's action did in fact go through. So Cynder is not a roleblocker, or he didn't target MF, or he is a roleblocker who targeted MF but MF was able to avoid the block for whatever reason. Those are the options now.
Click to expand...

If he's lying about being a roleblocker, he's probably not a town role, because town has no reason to lie - even if he's an alien and wants us to lynch him, he would've been inspected by ILS last night and wouldn't inspect as innocent if he were activated. If he's a roleblocker lying about targeting MF n0, he's probably a mafia roleblocker, because again, a town roleblocker wouldn't have any reason to lie. And it's extremely unlikely that yet another redirecting/blocking role protected MF or blocked Cynder n0, given the high number of existing town roles that do that.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Keldeo said:
If he's lying about being a roleblocker, he's probably not a town role, because town has no reason to lie - even if he's an alien and wants us to lynch him, he would've been inspected by ILS last night and wouldn't inspect as innocent if he were activated. If he's a roleblocker lying about targeting MF n0, he's probably a mafia roleblocker, because again, a town roleblocker wouldn't have any reason to lie. And it's extremely unlikely that yet another redirecting/blocking role protected MF or blocked Cynder n0, given the high number of existing town roles that do that.
Click to expand...

I don't know why everyone is so sure that Cynder actually was investigated last night — we don't actually know that. The whole "consequences" thing is making me think that it makes more sense for redirecting to happen before any swapping. Roleblocking and redirecting is more of like, an intermediate thing than a consequence, in my mind.

I suppose this'll be moot after we see the lynch result, anyway.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Eifie said:
I don't know why everyone is so sure that Cynder actually was investigated last night — we don't actually know that. The whole "consequences" thing is making me think that it makes more sense for redirecting to happen before any swapping. Roleblocking and redirecting is more of like, an intermediate thing than a consequence, in my mind.

I suppose this'll be moot after we see the lynch result, anyway.
Click to expand...

Okay, I just noticed today that I missed like an entire page of posts and maybe this wasn't actually relevant, heheh.

Anyway: Gzhoom, do you think we should coordinate our actions for tonight so that we don't end up possibly interfering with each other again? ILS's target happened to be the person who died last night, so we're lucky that today the uncertainty about who actually got inspected didn't hugely screw things up, but it would be nice to make sure that doesn't happen again.

(I'm talking to Gzhoom, but of course I want everyone else's opinions on whether or not this is a good idea, too!)
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

I think that makes the most sense, yeah. Because I still don’t have much reason to switch anyone’s consequences tonight unless I can get an idea of who might be targeted by the Mafia.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Gzhoom said:
I think that makes the most sense, yeah. Because I still don’t have much reason to switch anyone’s consequences tonight unless I can get an idea of who might be targeted by the Mafia.
Click to expand...

Okay, here's my attempt to give the mafia as little information as possible and not make either of our actions basically useless tonight. Why don't you swap ILS with someone relatively low-profile (i.e., not posting all that much). That way if the mafia attempts to get a kill on ILS by trying to guess who you'll swap him with, they run the risk of guessing wrong and spending a kill on someone who's not all that active anyway. Meanwhile, ILS and I can target more active people without fear of weird stuff happening with our actions (hopefully).
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Discussion is heated today, mostly having to do with what people have been getting up to in the past few nights. It's all very confusing--just what is with all these people messing in their neighbors' business? There aren't a great many leads to go on, but at last a shaky near-consensus emerges: Cynder's story doesn't add up. He'll be the one to go.

Cynder doesn't resist--he just looks resigned. But in the end the townsfolk are horrified to discover that they've done away with their first innocent.

Cynder is dead.He was Town.

Seventy-two hours for night actions.

(( btw I have been running longer-than-normal phases because I wasn't sure whether people were going to have trouble getting together for discussion, etc., but in effect most night actions and day phase voting has gotten done within 48 hours anyway. Let me know if you would prefer a switch to more standard 48-hour phases. ))
 
Re: [N3] ASB Halloween Mafia

The town is especially grim tonight, with the murder of an innocent townsperson lingering over their heads. Many can't sleep, and some even take to the streets, dangerous though they are, in search of answers, maybe, or hoping they can do something, anything to prevent the Mafia from taking another life. Alas, all the town's best efforts fail, and when the morning comes they find another of their number cut down.

Kratos Aurion is dead. They were Town.

Seventy-two hours for discussion.
 
Re: [D4] ASB Halloween Mafia

Welp. At least ILS is alive and well! Any results?
 
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