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Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I'd like to hear what Flora has to say. Depending on what she says, we might be able to glean some information.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I gotta admit, at the moment I'm contemplating taking a third option: neither I nor Altissimo is Mafia, and my result last night was spurious.

The entire reason I rolechecked Altissimo last night was because I was feeling pretty confident she was innocent, and if she was I thought it would practically solve the game. I explained this in the post I made in ILS' quicktopic yesterday:

Okay, the night phase should now be nearly over, and hopefully unless MF's slow on starting the day again, there's no longer time for people to discuss this/change their night actions. If I survive the night, I'll flavorify this and post it in the main thread, modifying it with the results of my night action as appropriate. If I die, I'd appreciate if someone could C/P this to the main thread for me.

Anyway, I'm the Oracle. Here are my questions/answers for N0-N3:

N0: "Is the number of factions in this game equal to two?" Yes
N1: "Did the game begin with three scum-aligned players?" Yes
N2: "Was the power to swap the night actions that target two players given to a scum-aligned role?" No
N3: "Was the (non-Lover) power to recruit others to communicate out-of-thread given to a Town role?" Yes

So there are only two Mafia members left, and we don't need to worry about any aliens when we go to lynch. Like I said, ILS and Jack are innocent--only way they wouldn't be is if they'd somehow managed to swap roles with somebody (no indication of this kind of power being available).

This night I asked, "Was the power to protect multiple other players at night given to a Town role?"

I asked about Altissimo because if what she says about her power is true, I think it allows us to infer the innocence of some other players. In particular, it looks as though N3 Butterfree was most likely the target of a kill action, and likely the only kill action in play was a Mafia kill. Therefore, I think that if Altissimo's telling the truth, Butterfree is most likely innocent.

In that case, I'm innocent, ILS is innocent, Jack's innocent, Altissimo's innocent, and Butterfree's probably innocent. Zapi, Flora, and Kratos Aurion are unaccounted for, and two of them are Mafia (unless Butterfree's Mafia).

I think Kratos is the most likely innocent, simply because it seems pretty well-established that she started with a chameleon power and now has a dead-role-reporting power, and a chameleon power would be awful to give to a Mafia-aligned player. It's just asking for something to go horribly wrong.

On the other hand, Flora is the one I believe most likely to be Mafia. Her claim has bothered me from the start, and the fact that Nira included her in his list of night targets troubled me more. Everything else he included in that post was publicly-available info and didn't require him to make a claim that anyone could contradict. Mentioning Flora as his target N3 would be another safe play if she were also a Mafia member and could back him up if necessary.

I think, then, that if Altissimo's innocent the most probable Mafia members are Flora and, by process of elimination, Zapi.

But that's only if Altissimo's innocent! If not, things get a whole lot murkier. Therefore, I think determining whether her claim is true is of paramount importance. One way or another, there are only two Mafia members left, so there's at least a little time left to get stuff figured out.

Why I was feeling confident she was innocent was that if she's not, it opens a lot of questions about what went on in previous nights. As far as I'm aware, Zero Moment's role is the only one that could actually have prevented a Mafia kill... but there were two nights without kills. No one else has claimed doctor/jailer/etc., and we know almost all the dead innocents' roles thanks to Kratos' power. What the hell happened that second time? Also, based on what Zapi said, two people targeted Jack last night. Nobody else owned up to that second target, and obviously whatever hit him wasn't a kill role. Then again, based on Nira, it looks quite likely that the Mafia have secondary non-killing roles to work with anyway.

However, there are Mafia roles that allow them to mess with inspectors' results. I think the usual form is you choose a name, a role, and yes or no, and then anybody with an inforole gets sent the appropriate one instead of their actual result. Perhaps a Mafia player sent me a "No" when I should have gotten "Yes." Of course, they'd have no way to know whether a "yes" or "no" would benefit them because they could only guess at what I'd be asking, but that's a 50/50 chance of fucking me up, anyway (and I hope they were assuming I was Inspector anyway). Further problem: this calls into question previous nights' results as well, and potentially the innocence of Jack/ILS as a result. I think that kind of info-scrambling power is typically one-use-only, mind, but we've seen some fairly powerful roles running around with few to no restrictions on them. Also, no one had claimed anything inforoleish up until me, so there may have been no call to use it until last night.

I didn't raise this possibility last night because I wanted to see what Altissimo's reaction would be. I have to admit, "NO, NEGREK, IT IS YOU WHO ARE THE MAFIAS" was not as innocent-indicative as I'd been hoping for (more an "I have no idea how that happened but I'm innocent I swear"), but it's also a pretty natural defensive reaction, so eh. It's possible that I'm clinging to the idea of her being innocent so hard simply because it would validate the theory I posted under the hide tag above (and gaze upon it, is it not beautiful and logical?), but all in all I'm baffled enough by the result that I think it bears pointing out that it doesn't necessarily mean that Altissimo is Mafia.

Also, let's be real: if I were Mafia, trying to frame Altissimo like this is basically the dumbest move possible. People have been kind of "eh" over her the whole game, so if I wanted her lynched I could as easily have just tried to start a hint-train, like "ehhh I dunno I still don't really like Altissimo here, so if we can't come up with anybody better to lynch..." I would have been outing myself completely--I doubt people would let me stick around long after I'd made that claim, lynched Altissimo, and had her flip innocent--and for what? Eliminating a player whom I could have gotten rid of much more safely through another method? If I were going to expose myself to a counterlynch as blatantly as that, I could have picked a far better target.

Jack's idea that we're both Mafia is another possibility, but that would be way too risky a play IMO. I would understand if maybe people had been gunning hard for one or both of us to die already, but I don't think I at least was at the top of people's suspect list after yesterday, and all this mess would do would be to draw a lot of attention to the both of us and more or less guarantee one of us got lynched. Were I Mafia, I would have preferred to continue lying low at this point rather than basically giving up my partner just in hopes that this would remove suspicion from the other long enough for them to win.

Anyway, yeah, that's where my reasoning stands. Welcome to my hell. (Also I bet MF is really enjoying this, that bastard.)

As to why I claimed today rather than yesterday, when everyone else was: as I said, I expected a positive result from my rolecheck, which would in turn pretty much seal up the game. Given that, I thought it was worth the risk not to completely reveal my role with the potential payoff being narrowing down the remaining Mafia almost to a man. I also wanted to obscure the fact that I was an Oracle and not an ordinary Inspector, because Inspectors are a little easier to fight--any target-disruption power can really fuck with them, for example, and if the Mafia has one of those on their side they might have decided to leave me alive and count on that to screw with my results. In addition, because I only claimed two people's alignments despite having four nights to work with, they might have thought I wasn't a traditional Inspector/Oracle at all and instead was using some indirect means to deduce those things, thus potentially making me a less interesting target. Finally, there was little downside: even if I died in the night, I could still post the entirety of my info to the private chat group when it was too late for the Mafia to do anything with it, so I didn't have to worry about taking any of my info to the grave. (Which I did, of course.) My thought that I was I only needed one more night--so why not take a gamble on it?

And come on, I didn't mention the three Mafia thing earlier because being very insistent about there being three would definitely have looked weird to approximately everyone. Most people were assuming ~3 anyway, and especially early in the game the precise math doesn't matter. Likewise, if people had been really "alien oh the noes" and it was messing with the day vote, I would have said something about it, but no one threw it out there as more than an idle possibility, and commenting on it would only have drawn attention to me.

Why wouldn't the Mafia target me last night? The usual reasons, I would guess: by not targeting people claiming powerful roles you throw suspicion on them and are more likely to have your attack go through, on the assumption that the innocents will be using their own powers to try to defend that person.

All that aside, though, who did you protect last night, Altissimo? And whom did you target, Zapi?
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I have a lot of thoughts about all this but unfortunately they will have to wait because I am a bit busy at the moment

I will, however, respond to this:

All that aside, though, who did you protect last night, Altissimo? And whom did you target, Zapi?

I didn't. The way my role works is that I effectively have 4 uses of the heal-power, and on the 4th one, I die. I used 1, 2, and 3 on n1, 2, and 3, so I couldn't have used the 4th last night without dying, so I didn't.

I wasn't really sure what to do last night. Like, I knew using it to keep you alive would be a definite thing... but I was also having some suspicions already about you, which is part of the reason I wrote that whole big textwall (for the record, your post is making me rethink significantly about it, but I'll type my full thoughts up later) and I really didn't want to try and use my power unless I was sure the person I was protecting was innocent and sure the Mafia would target them and sure that something else was unlikely to interfere (ex. Jack's swapping - which, in this case, I indeed would have been screwed by, if the Mafia had even targeted Jack/Negrek in the first place, which they obviously didn't - or Flora's vig kill). It's an unlikely combination to be sure of and I know I'm being selfish with it, but I also just... want to make sure it's useful if I can, since it kills me.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Okay! I'll write some more now. (Sorry I'm so late in following up - I had a Skype interview yesterday for grad school, then I had to study for my social psychology test - just got out of that, totally aced it lol)

I will admit that my suspicions of Negrek are not entirely assuaged. However I'm pretty sure this is due to the perseverance effect (which we've discussed in social psychology, go figure) - basically, if people are told a faulty statement and then asked to come up with a reason why the faulty statement may be true, they will continue to believe in the faulty statement and their own justification of it even if they are explicitly told the faulty statement is faulty. I'm trying my hardest to keep that in mind but it's one of those cases where emotion (NEGREK IS TOTALLY MAFIA) is battling with logic (but look, Negrek made excellent points for why your justifications are wrong!) and it's affecting my outlook.

That being said. Negrek made good points. Specifically, the statement that she is not specifically targeting me and trying to claim I'm outright mafia, as well as the explanation of why Being Mafia and fabricating this whole Oracle/asking-about-my-mafia status shebang is ridiculous, are logical and actually make a lot more sense than the theories I posited. I'll admit to having been paranoid and reaching (more than a little) to draw some of those conclusions - it really is counterproductive to be mafia and use it for the purposes I suggested. But, like I said, I was just looking for reasons and using whatever I could, because I couldn't see a reason why the Oracle question would turn out that way unless Negrek was Mafia and fabricated it.

I say that, and don't make any mention of the idea that the real mafia used some sort of disruptive power to screw up Negrek's results, because I... admittedly forgot about that being a possibility. Since Negrek's claim wasn't inspector (which could have been affected by some other powers), I honestly couldn't think of a way in which the results could have been false, so in my mind the only way that such a statement could have been made was if Negrek was Mafia and trying to frame me. But, uh... the idea that the results got screwed with somehow makes... more sense, honestly. Like I said, I'm not 100% sure Negrek isn't Mafia, but I'm a lot less suspicious now that that possibility has been raised.

Anyway... if Negrek indeed isn't Mafia and is telling the truth about the Oracle situation, then the whole analysis about Flora and Zapi being the Mafia by process of elimination makes sense. Flora seems more suspicious of the two and while I'd like to hear what she has to say, I don't know how much it's going to help. I'm leaning toward lynching Flora today. Anyone else have any thoughts or suspicions to share? (I don't really want to outright throw my lynch vote for Flora without at least giving her (and anyone who might have a defense of her) a chance to talk, but then again I'm... not so sure that's gonna happen given her track record of silence, lol)

tl;dr Negrek makes sense and I think lynching Flora is a good move today
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Sorry this is so late, I was really busy this weekend and I only had time to read over stuff without actually responding. Also due to my busy-ness, I forgot to send in a night action last night, so. No one was targeted by my broadcasting. Sorry about that...

Anyway... I think what Negrek's saying makes sense in that it's likely either all of the answers they've received to their questions are correct, meaning that Altissimo is lying about her role; or the answer they received last night was messed with, meaning that Altissimo is not lying and it's likely that I and Flora are mafia. Given that I know I'm not mafia, I'm more inclined to go with the former theory, though my bias should be obvious lol. I mean, Altissimo has also been giving me mafia vibes throughout the entire game, but that's more of a hunch than anything else.

I definitely want to give Flora a chance to defend herself before voting to lynch her... I know I've stated before that I'm suspicious of her, and I still am, but we've still got a while to go before the discussion period is up, right?
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

... okay, since Flora hasn't had anything to say and the day phase is winding down, I don't know that there will be a problem if I throw in my vote for Flora.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Looker's daily report

Today's fine methodology of information gathering is... cuisine! I should elaborify. See, some of the prisoners are making years today, so the warden decided to bake a cake. But he's not the type of man who gets his hands dirty, oh no, so he sent for some prisoners make the recipe happen. However, I'm sure you are familiar with the saying, "too many cooks will spoil the souffle". Only a few inmates were handpicked for the task -- and one of them was I, naturally. I know this is because the warden has already noticed my exceptional and diverse talents, although some of the prisoners were joking that it was only because "low-threat level" types were being assigned to the job.

But! What's most interesting is that, for some reason, one of my fellow chefs was insisting that we place a life-size edible replica of Lovrina in the bottom of the cake. I was more than a little surprised that he'd made such a thing in so little time, as anyone would be. Nonetheless, it was understandable, as we were, figuratively and literally, the cream of the cropping in the facility where confectionery is concerned! I don't know that our birthday gentlemen are necessarily such big fans, but the prisoners do ever know each other best.

Ah, but as for the report proper... Things appear to be orderly in the compound today.

Flora, the Lovrina, is dead. She was innocent.

72 hour for night actions.

(hope you'll enjoy that cake, Butterfree and Negrek!)
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Sorry this night ran as long as it did.

Twelfth notch on Lysandre's cell wall.

Yoooo... Man, I was all worked up and stuff, so one of the guys was like, hey, sniff this, all shoving a vase or something on my face, but now maaaaan! This is the best thing ever! I don't know what's going on but it's awesome.

I don't really feel like doing a lot more things other than eating a bunch (they got us cake yesterday! I didn't even mind the dead gal in there!), but I swear, I just got a buncha cool superpowers! Like... I can see sound now, you know? You get what I'm talking about. Like, if two people target JackPK last night, I can see the waves in the air. Like, whoosh! It's uber cool. I could fight crime now or something.

Oh, the jailbreaking thing? Who caaaaaares, man. I'm good. I bet they're all killing each other all over again, but I don't even care.

No one has died.

72 hours for discussion.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Last night I swapped myself and Negrek again, iirc

I'm on mobile and at work, so I can't really talk a whole lot, but no death sounds an awful lot like either A) inactive scum or B) Altissimo was lying about dying when she uses up the last bit of her healing power. We don't have anybody else that can outright prevent a death, do we?
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

OH YEAH and I was inducted into ILS's thingy, can't really look through the Quicktopic archive at the moment (again, am on mobile and at work) but yes, this is a thing that has happened
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

We don't have anybody else that can outright prevent a death, do we?

Not unless someone else is lying about their power - either someone here has a mafia-stopping power somehow or they're a now-active alien. (Or the mafia was just inactive, but idk how likely that is.)

I wasn't lying about my power, though. I didn't use it last night.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread


Last night's lack of a death makes it obvious that Altissimo's supposed role is not the only thing that could result in no nightkill in this game. Given this, Negrek's reasoning for why Altissimo was probably be innocent breaks down - whatever happened last night may also be what happened on the previous nights with no kills, so the idea that Altissimo's healing power must be real to explain them is clearly discredited.

This brings me back to my mafia vibes about Altissimo, because have I mentioned I have serious mafia vibes about Altissimo and we have an Oracle result indicating she's fishy that it turns out we dismissed on flawed grounds. I mean, I am going to feel pretty silly if it turns out Negrek is mafia after all, but seriously, I think it's Altissimo and Zapi, unless Negrek has some further information for us.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I can protest all I want but that's obviously not gonna help matters, since I know I can't prove anything about my own innocence, unfortunately. ~_~

I will say though that while driving home yesterday I considered something - what if the Mafia have a restriction that they can only attack on every other night? I don't know why that would be the case but it's not like weirder things haven't happened.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I'm pretty bothered by the idea that there might be some kind of healer/roleblocker power still in the wild, simply because it doesn't square well with what we already know. ILS, Jack, and Zapi's powers have all pretty much as good as been confirmed, and ILS has demonstrably been using his recruit power every night except that one he skipped near the beginning. Jack's swap power has also pretty clearly been going on, although there's less confirmation of it going off every night, and Zapi's has been used more intermittently. Basically, even if someone has a death-preventing role in addition to what they've claimed, I'd be extremely surprised if they could use two powers in one night, which rules out most of the remaining players as the culprit right away.

I will say though that while driving home yesterday I considered something - what if the Mafia have a restriction that they can only attack on every other night? I don't know why that would be the case but it's not like weirder things haven't happened.
That was actually a thing in one of the games I played in, although that was a very strange game in that there were no actual mafia and just a bunch of players with specific independent win conditions. It was also set up so at least one person was capable of killing on any given night. (Of course, Nira's already toast, so .) It would seem strange to restrict the Mafia in that way unless they had some crazy power(s) to balance it with, though.

The every other night pattern is interesting, though, and I hadn't noticed it before now. But there's another pattern in there that I hadn't seen before, either--every night where there isn't a death, we get one of Zapi's messages, and they're always talking about the number of people who targeted JackPK and it's always two people targeting him. I have no clue what's going on with that; it's totally possible that it's just a coincidence, but it's incredibly weird. Some kind of fake system message? Something else going on? The night phase reports have been really, really strange when you actually look at them.

Ultimately, though, while that's rather unsettling, and if anyone has any ideas what's up with it, I don't think it has a great deal of bearing on who we should lynch from here on out.

As Butterfree pointed out, much of my reasoning yesterday hinged on Altissimo having been our healer, but based on the events of last night that doesn't appear to be the case. Also, I was worried about the potential for my results having been tampered with. However, if Altissimo were innocent (and there weren't any crazy secondary powers running around!), only Butterfree or Flora could be the culprits, since they were the only ones who hadn't demonstrated their abilities. Flora flipping innocent ruled her out, so last night I asked:

Was a Gladiator-like power given to an innocent-aligned role? Yes

I was actually mostly trying to confirm where there was a gladiator in the game at all, because it would be an incredibly powerful role on the Mafia side and I would assume someone with the power was innocent anyway as a result. In any case, Butterfree's the only one to have claimed it and the only person besides Altissimo not to have demonstrated any power, so I think this is a pretty good confirmation she's innocent. Which brings us down to Altissimo and Zapi as potential Mafiosi, then.

I'd be fine with voting for either of them, really, although if anybody has any thoughts about the weird pattern of night deaths, I'd love to hear them.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Kekeke... Time to reveal to the world the might of Team Meanies!

I thought the issue with this Jack chump was weird... It was always Jack and always two people. Either those are some huge coincidences or something fishy's up!

Now, check this out... there've only been three night kills. It makes no sense for the mafia to not kill every single night- why wouldn't they? That's usually their win condition. However, we have someone on our hands with a similar claim- a claim that if they use their power four times, they die! Altissimo, care to explain?

Additionally, they approached both me and Kratos outside of the quicktopic expressing suspicion about Negrek's role- potentially the only role that could've disrupted the plan of the Mafiosi.

Finally useful for once, kekeke! *little sparkle from PMD shows up*
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Now, check this out... there've only been three night kills. It makes no sense for the mafia to not kill every single night- why wouldn't they? That's usually their win condition. However, we have someone on our hands with a similar claim- a claim that if they use their power four times, they die! Altissimo, care to explain?

... explain what, exactly? Are you implying that I was telling the truth about my claim about the four Quads thing being in effect but that it actually is applicable to night kills? As clever as that would be for a Mafia role... don't MF's games usually have multiple mafia people capable of killing? If I were Mafia and had that restriction there'd be no reason why Nira or whoever else couldn't just kill in my stead, and it wouldn't make sense for the "four uses" thing to apply to all of the Mafia when it's based on the Go-Rock Quads, I don't think.

Additionally, they approached both me and Kratos outside of the quicktopic expressing suspicion about Negrek's role- potentially the only role that could've disrupted the plan of the Mafiosi.

Honestly I was suspicious from well before the roleclaim. The roleclaim just didn't actually do anything to make me un-suspicious. The fact that it is a threatening role is coincidental.

re: Negrek also thinking I'm Mafia: again, I don't know that there is anything that I can use to prove my innocence since I'm as confused as you are on how these kills keep getting prevented and I don't have any ideas as to the no-kill-night coincidences with Jack and Zapi etc either. If you want to lynch me w/e, I'm getting too drained irl (grad school interview in Florida this weekend and a lot of schoolwork surrounding it) to expend the effort of putting up much of a fight (even if I know it's the wrong decision to lynch me >:/) since there isn't anything left me for me to say anyway.
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Welll, since nobody else seems inclined, I guess I'll start the voting. Altissimo
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Of course there's only one thing I can do to try to protect myself, we all know what that is... Negrek
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