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Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Okay, so I got ninja'd by a few posts. But even if Jack is interpreting your post correctly and you just meant "the mafia game" (so it's not Jack specifically you're suspicious of), clearly you're still suspicious of someone, since you mentioned not wanting to call out mafia members. I would suggest pointing those fingers at that someone pretty darn quick, so you can either convince us to switch our vote now, or let us know to go after them tomorrow.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I'm honestly not sure whether you're trying to point the finger at me to take the heat off you, but whether you're scum or not I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume "the mafia" was a poorly worded way of saying "this mafia game."
Haha, whoops, yeah. I meant the "mafia game," i don't suspect you at all.
We're asking you to share any more info that you got, so you.... make a long, rambling post to defend yourself without actually giving any more info? This reeks to me of scum in over its head, unable to come up with info that won't potentially incriminate it, and therefore trying to stall giving that info.
No, it'll be done by the end of the day! Honestly if i didn't want to give it, i wouldn't have promised otherwise; that would make me look even worse. I'm just making sure it's right and putting it in a readable format (and also i'm kind of busy?).
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

No, it'll be done by the end of the day! Honestly if i didn't want to give it, i wouldn't have promised otherwise; that would make me look even worse. I'm just making sure it's right and putting it in a readable format (and also i'm kind of busy?).
Uh? "Making sure it's right"? "Putting it in a readable format"? That sounds... kind of bizarre? How hard is copy-pasting a PM? If the PM were in some sort of extremely esoteric format that warrants this, why wouldn't you just tell us that instead of being so vague and evasive about why you can't give us the info?

Nira said:
This is sort of unfair; i'm busy enough with school and the like, and it's not that unrealistic for me to have forgotten night zero. I did not forget night one— i happened to pick the one person in the mafia who happened to reverse my action and okay i mean really is that my fault. It's not "convenient," it just worked out that way, and i think it's sort of strange that you're so quick to jump on my case about it when it's not even more suspicious than perhaps some other people.
Well, of course it wouldn't be your fault it turned out that way if you were innocent! When I say 'convenient', I mean that for a mafia member, claiming you're an inspector but just happened to get no useful information is extremely convenient, because then you don't say anything verifiable that could come back to bite you after making the claim. If you were innocent, things would happen to turn out this way pretty rarely, but if you were mafia, then it's very likely you'd make exactly this kind of claim. This disparity (combined with the fact the ratio of mafia to innocents is much less skewed) means that you claiming this is way more likely to happen because you're mafia than because you're innocent but it turned out that way by coincidence, which means it's evidence that you're mafia. Add in your evasiveness about your N2 and N3 results, which only makes any sense for an innocent if your role happens to be something extremely esoteric but would be exactly what one would expect if you were mafia, and you're about as suspicious as it's possible to be in a mafia game. It's not impossible for you not to be, but right now, given the information we have, the odds of you being mafia are a whole lot higher than for anybody else, and thus it's very reasonable to suspect you. If you really are innocent and this really is just how things happened to turn out, then you should be cursing your luck for the pileup of coincidences that are making you look so glaringly suspicious, not getting mad that we're drawing the inevitable conclusion!
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I've been out of the house until just now, piecing things together on my mobile by flipping between PMs on my bad service, pasting them into a separate application, removing the excess flavour bits that were part of the PM, and checking to make sure everything aligns with the right nights. Anyway, here is the fruit of my labours:
Night Zero
forgot to send in a night action

Night One
Inspected Jack. Returned my own results:
-When used at night, targets a player (chosen by the user) and, at the end of the night, if successful, reveals the targeted player's "powers" to the user. Cannot be used in the same night as ???.
-When used at night, targets a player (chosen by the user) and prevents that player from activating their "powers" during the same night. Cannot be used in the same night as ???.

Night Two
Inspected VM, returned the following:
-When used at night, if successful, cancels the actions of voting/killing roles (such as vigs, CPR doctors, and vote thieves), and/or disruptive roles (such as roleblockers, redirectors, and framers).

Night Three
Roleblocked Flora.
Well, of course it wouldn't be your fault it turned out that way if you were innocent! When I say 'convenient', I mean that for a mafia member, claiming you're an inspector but just happened to get no useful information is extremely convenient, because then you don't say anything verifiable that could come back to bite you after making the claim. If you were innocent, things would happen to turn out this way pretty rarely, but if you were mafia, then it's very likely you'd make exactly this kind of claim. This disparity (combined with the fact the ratio of mafia to innocents is much less skewed) means that you claiming this is way more likely to happen because you're mafia than because you're innocent but it turned out that way by coincidence, which means it's evidence that you're mafia. Add in your evasiveness about your N2 and N3 results, which only makes any sense for an innocent if your role happens to be something extremely esoteric but would be exactly what one would expect if you were mafia, and you're about as suspicious as it's possible to be in a mafia game.
This is fair enough, which is probably why it's frustrating. I know i'm not mafia and i've encountered a difficult situation which has predisposed everyone to distrust me (despite the fact that i feel like i already proved i'm innocent by explaining Jack's role before he claimed), and there's nothing i can do because regardless of the evidence i give at this point, everyone is going to be inclined to overanalyse it and attempt to call some sort of illusory bluff. There's no way i can prove to you that i'm innocent, which is the nature of the game; but i see everyone expending their energies trying to prove guilty someone that i know is not and i think we should be focusing our attentions elsewhere. We're wasting time when we could be finding someone that's mafia. Hopefully the evidence above is sufficient; it's ostensibly "useless" but whatever i guess. I picked people that looked scummy to me and investigated them and this is what i got. (At this point i don't suspect Jack, but i clearly wasn't alone in suspecting VM.)

Anyway, hopefully this sheds a little light on... something? I don't know. It's probably not anything new; i was just hesitant to reveal information because i wanted to keep as much as i could private so that i wouldn't get my head cut off but i mean whatever i'm probably going to die one way or another at this point anyway so here it is. I'm not really as mad at the conclusion itself as i am the fact that everyone's sticking to it so hard and there's nothing i can really do to dissuade suspicion because, you're right, it does seem hella fishy but i mean i can't do anything... about that...

I'm not all that opposed to being lynched, i guess, if you guys think it's your only choice— i mean, i think it's stupid, because you're getting rid of a roleblocker/investigator, but whatever. If you truly think i'm mafia, i can't stop you, but i'll do whatever i can to prove that i'm legitimate if anyone would like to put my powers to the test tonight, and risk a night death for the chance of possibly retaining the life of an innocent with valuable powers.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I'm kind of confused... why did you roleblock Flora N3, rather than inspecting? It's true she's claimed lame-vig, but at least to me it would make more sense to confirm that she was actually telling the truth about that than to block her? I mean, there's no evidence she's been going out trying to murder people, unless there was some reason you thought she might start trying that night...?

Also, you knew VM was telling the truth about his bizarro-power, but you didn't even try to make a token attempt at deflecting suspicion from him and perhaps preventing us from going off on that long tangent? And now you're complaining that we're spending a ton of effort going after someone you know is innocent? =/

Like Butterfree said, it's entirely possible you're innocent and unlucky, in which case that's super frustrating and really sucks. I have to admit, though, that your choices look pretty bizarre to me at this point, and tbh every post you've made today has made me more and more convinced that you're Mafia.

Also, I believe I'm the only person who hasn't even partial claimed (hello). I'm not quite ready to do so yet, although I will tomorrow if possible. However, since I might not live that long, I'll at least share what I know. Namely, both JackPK and ILS are innocent. That's all I've got in terms of alignments, and unfortunately I don't know anything that would help untangle the situation with Nira here.

So basically you shouldn't make one of them your lynch target, regardless of what happens with Nira, IMO.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Hrm.

I have a strong suspicion that Butterfree is mafia. The Thing is an awfully useful role to claim- town wouldn't use it unless there were strong suspicions, and a mafia would've used it almost immediately. I think Nira's telling the truth. I completely understand that he's had difficulties keeping up (I've had some similar issues).
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I just wanted to say that I really enjoy your Archie impression, A+.

Whaddya mean, Archie impression?! I'm the real deal!

...In all seriousness, thank you! I do try. I have too much of a headache to maintain my Archie voice for the remainder of this post, though.

Anyway. I'm still not sure what to think about Nira's claims. On the one hand, nothing they've said so far has made me particularly less suspicious of them... but on the other hand, as someone who's definitely made mistakes and poor choices that have made me seem like mafia when I'm actually not, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for the time being. Also, the fact that they're saying they're "not all that opposed to being lynched" is making me wary of the possibility of some alien/other lynch-win-role fuckery.

Right now, though, I'm more interested in the last two posts in this thread, namely:

[...] I'll at least share what I know. Namely, both JackPK and ILS are innocent.
... Care to elaborate? I mean, randomly declaring your mafia buddies as innocent with no evidence/support seems like way too obvious of a tactic for an actual mafioso to use, and I have more faith in you as a mafia player than that, but. I can't think of a reason why you'd just say this without actually explaining your role and expect people to take it at face value...?

And re: ILS' last post: I understand your reasons for finding Butterfree suspicious but I don't see how they're nearly enough to start voting for her over anyone else. Most of what she's said so far has seemed pretty reasonable to me.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Hrm.

I have a strong suspicion that Butterfree is mafia. The Thing is an awfully useful role to claim- town wouldn't use it unless there were strong suspicions, and a mafia would've used it almost immediately. I think Nira's telling the truth. I completely understand that he's had difficulties keeping up (I've had some similar issues).
Huh? What does a hypothetical mafia who can do The Thing have to do with anything? If I were mafia, presumably I'd be lying about doing The Thing... which you appear to agree with, since you say a mafia player with The Thing would have used it by now. ?_? What a mafia that actually does have the power would do has no bearing on how likely a person who claims the power is to be mafia.

But yeah, The Thing would be a fairly convenient claim for a mafia member! I won't contest that. It is also simply a role, though, and one that we know MF likes to use in his games, so believing I'm mafia strongly enough to want to lynch me simply because I claimed it is a stretch, especially when Nira's claim is also there. In Nira's case, their claimed actions and results thereof are all such that they give no verifiable information - it is obviously and self-evidently far less likely that somebody has that role and they happened to get no verifiable information on any of the four separate nights so far than simply that somebody has The Thing as a role. If you believe I'm mafia simply because I have a role that'd be convenient for the mafia to claim, then if you wanted to be self-consistent you should believe Nira is mafia much more strongly. (Of course, you might really suspect me because you think I was too aggressive in accusing Nira or Altissimo or whatever, and that's fair enough. But saying you suspect me just because I claimed The Thing, while at the same time believing Nira, is bizarre - unless you know something about Nira that you're not telling us.)

As I said in my previous post, I'm by no means claiming it's not perfectly plausible that they could have trouble keeping up with the game and miss a night action - I've done that in mafia games too! I'm claiming that lots of different things about Nira's claim and posts and supposed night actions that should be independent are all just happening to line up in such a way as to look exactly like a mafia member trying to make up something nobody will be able to contradict, and sometimes distinctly unlike a genuine innocent. Honestly, if Negrek weren't vouching for you, I'd find it kind of suspicious how you seem to be going out of your way to ignore everything else we cited as suspicious about Nira and present it as if we're just baselessly going "Nobody would ever fail to send in a night action, therefore Nira is mafia"? That's clearly not what we're saying, or what we've ever been saying, here.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I do want to point out, since people seem to be forgetting, that back on the night when I switched Nira and myself (can't remember if it was N0 or N1, and I'm on mobile so I can't be bothered to check), Nira publicly said they got results about themself before I publicly roleclaimed. So I do think they're telling the truth about their role.

That's not to say they're necessarily innocent. It seems like a much more helpful role for scum to have (since they would want to find out who's inspector/doctor/etc) than for an innocent to have. Of course, this being a game with atypical roles, it may very well be an innocent role. It's tough to judge. I'm still not really sure what to think, but I'm not really inclined to retract my vote quite yet.

Meanwhile, Negrek, I'm certainly not suspicious of you yet, but surely you would have to know that — based on what you posted about alignments — if you're innocent, you're painting a huge target on your back for a nightkill, since the scum are going to assume you're an inspector. Literally just about any other claim would be safer for you to make, so why are you reticent to claim? If you're going to share inspector data, why not come out and claim inspector? (Meanwhile, if you're scum, damn, that's a clever trick: pseudoclaim inspector, so that if/when you get killed and flip scum, it immediately throws suspicion on everyone you "cleared" as innocent, tricking the town into lynching an innocent the following night. Diabolical.)
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

That's not to say they're necessarily innocent. It seems like a much more helpful role for scum to have (since they would want to find out who's inspector/doctor/etc) than for an innocent to have.
Now that you mention it... role inspection seems like a somewhat overpowered role for a scum to have. The mafia obviously already know who's not mafia, so the drawback of it not revealing someone's alignment would be moot; and it'd make it so that mafia wouldn't even have to wait for people to roleclaim to start killing based on roles. And they could also use it to verify roleclaims (i.e. if someone claimed doctor/inspector/something else useful and the mafia wanted to make sure they weren't an alien trying to get activated). I guess in this particular game, it'd be balanced out by powers like VM's... but didn't he say that his powers didn't work on mafia?

(This in no way means Nira's innocent - they could be lying about their role completely - but it does make me suspect them a bit less.)
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Looker's daily report

The "in-character" approach was an unsuccess. Well, this International Police agent is stirred, but not shaken, as they say! Today, I have instead relied on my natural skills and tried out the approach of stealthing. Hidden at plain sight, I was not noticed at all by the criminals, and I could learn much about what they were up to today.

In fact, there was an interesting event... about that Ghetsis. All the day, he was spouting some foolishness on how his vile plans were close to fruitation. That is all he ever talks about, I hear, but today, his tone and his words seemed just slightly unlike his usual fare. People found this to be evidence that this time, the boy crying fox was truly being assulted by a fox! Rather, the boy crying fox was, in fact, the fox! Something of roughly that nature.

Then, one of them turns his eyes to a potted plant in the room and says "Looker, I know you are over there pretending to be a potted plant, and I know you are a cop, so just do me a favor and take this guy away." Well! I have Mission Control to obey, and that is enough for me, so I took no orders from that ruffian. Specially not one who is so rude, to the point that he kicked down the pot and my entire back still hurts from the falling.

Ah, well, at least, his behavior was all the evidence I needed! To conclude, using only my sharp intellect, that this Ghetsis was one of the people wanting to break the jail. Now that I have made this brillant deduction, perhaps the warden will see this and think, "Oh! Such detective skills! It is almost as if he is actually a detective who was mistaken for a criminal!"

Nira, the Ghetsis, is dead. He was mafia.

72 hours for night actions.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Eleventh notch on Lysandre's cell wall.

all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy

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Hm? You want to know about- oh. Well, Wes is dead. I don't care.

all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy all immortality and no beauty makes Lysandre a tearful boy

Kratos Aurion, the "Wes", is dead. They were innocent.

72 hours for discussion.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Giovanni.jpg

Well, I suppose it's time to come clean, isn't it? I managed to accomplish what I wanted last night, although I admit, the result wasn't what I expected.

As you might imagine, someone of my stature commands considerable resources, even from within the walls of this deplorably low-class prison. While the other so-called "Mafia" has been skulking around, causing trouble at night, I've had my own intelligence agents at work following their movement back to its source. Unfortunately, the somewhat draconian restrictions on outside communication in this place make it difficult for them to relay their discoveries, but a simple binary yes or no is easy enough to arrange. This is what they've sent me so far:

N0: "Is the number of factions in this game equal to two?" Yes
N1: "Did the game begin with three scum-aligned players?" Yes
N2: "Was the power to swap the night actions that target two players given to a scum-aligned role?" No
N3: "Was the (non-Lover) power to recruit others to communicate out-of-thread given to a Town role?" Yes
N4: "Was the power to protect multiple other players at night given to a Town role?" No

Of particular interest is the result I saw last night. Evidently those loud young people who have been disturbing the peace these past few nights may not be so altruistic as they claimed.

(( lysandre u okay bro? ))
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

WELL.

Either Negrek is mafia or Altissimo is. I've got to admit I'm definitely leaning towards Altissimo given those vibes, man. That said, it's sort of odd Negrek is here to give us this info: wouldn't the mafia have gone for her last night, after that bombshell of an inspectorish softclaim? JackPK, did you by any chance swap Negrek and Kratos, or something like that? (Of course, I suppose they could have been assuming Negrek would be protected.)
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

(Of course, Negrek was also pretty active in keeping the pressure on Nira yesterday, while Altissimo made one post that didn't even address the Nira accusation.)
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

WELL.

Either Negrek is mafia or Altissimo is.

Obviously I'm biased toward my own safety here. But... I'm pretty sure the answer is "Negrek" in this one.

I have my reasons for thinking this is true that go beyond the simple dichotomy of "well since I'm not Mafia there's only one answer here", but unfortunately typing those up will have to wait until I have more than like 5 minutes. Obviously if you want to go voting to lynch me in the meantime, I've got no method of stopping it. :/
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I will say though that I say "I'm pretty sure" Negrek is mafia because I tend to play devil's advocate everywhere and there's also the possibility that Negrek is either a) self-aligned (which would not be better than Mafia admittedly) or b) an innocent who is lying because they really have it out for me or just really think I'm Mafia and want to get me out of the game. Obviously the likelihood of Negrek actually being Mafia is higher than any of these but one of my life issues is that I can't say something with certainty unless it really is 100% certain.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

Okay now I have some more time.

Here's the thing about Negrek's claim. A lot of that Oracle stuff is easy to claim retrospectively. Like, we were looking at Nira's actions with that idea that "every claim that was made was something that could have been gleaned by looking in thread and is retrospective" and Negrek's claim is kind of the same way? The first two questions Negrek (supposedly) asked of MF are pretty "safe" because they were things that could almost be expected if it wasn't a surprise bastard mafia, and plus Negrek didn't even make a mention of the information they (?) received - I mean yeah if you're oracle you're gonna want to be keeping your role a secret, but look at this:

Negrek said:
Given 2-4 scum players out of the remaining six, we'd have at least a 33% chance of hitting a scum player even if we randlynched.

This is from Day 3, after Negrek had presumably already asked MF about number of factions and number of scum-aligned players - assuming Negrek is telling the truth. I'm not sure why, then, they would choose to obfuscate things with "2-4 scum players" when it would have been easier to just go "I think we can assume that, in a game this size, there are three scum players" and people would probably agree without having a reason to think they gleaned this from a night action - in other words, it's not suspicious. But if Negrek made up the night action retrospectively it makes a shitload more sense that of course they wouldn't have "known" there were three Mafia aligned players back then.

Further - and here's the rub - Negrek was the last one to claim. Even Nira who flipped Mafia claimed before Negrek did. This makes it real easy to say "oh yeah I'm the Oracle" because nobody else had claimed it.

Of course... that's not a role you (general you) really want to go around claiming because of the fact that it paints a target on your back. So, yeah, I get that being the last to claim is likely because of that reason if really innocent. But it's also a convenient excuse: "I was last to claim because I was Oracle" - really, "I was last to claim because I was Mafia scouting the other claims and oh, Oracle would be counter-intuitive to claim, so that's a reason why I'm innocent." But like, choosing Oracle to claim justifies the late claim and so therefore is a good claim for the Mafia to choose because of that. Does that make sense? It makes sense in my head.

Anyway, it's also really easy to fabricate claims with that in mind. ILS isn't lying about his role, and the fact that many of us have been pulled into the Secret Cabal confirms that. Further, it seems unlikely to me that such a role would be Mafia, and I think that was generally accepted. So, if the Oracle uses a "safe" role to claim as innocent, then that means they can basically get away with calling any other role, whatever alignment they want it to be, because they're already "trusted" due to claiming ILS as innocent. The idea, I imagine, is that a Mafia member posing as Oracle wouldn't have a reason to specifically name a certain player as innocent but it could totally be done for the sake of trust? Then if you even go so far as to say both Jack and ILS are innocent, one of those players is pretty much known to be innocent, while the other was under suspicion from multiple other players. Claiming Oracle and using ILS' safe role as a cover allows Negrek to protect both themselves and Jack by claiming Jack is innocent - since ILS is innocent then Negrek must be by extension, and if Negrek is innocent then that means they're likely telling the truth because an innocent fabricating the Oracle role would be ... pretty dumb, and therefore by extension again Jack must be innocent.

So I'm pretty sure this is all an elaborate set-up, a back-formation made by Negrek to gain trust and protect themselves and Jack in one fell swoop. If you want proof, consider the fact Butterfree pointed out - Negrek didn't die last night, and it was not a no-kill night, so unless Flora has something she wants to share with the class about her vig role or Jack confesses to having swapped Kratos and Negrek (assuming Jack is innocent, which may be unlikely if Negrek is Mafia) then that means the mafia didn't target Negrek, and honestly I can't see a reason why that would be the case.

As for myself... I'm in ILS' chat with Negrek. You'd think I'd have even more reason to kill them if I was the mafia considering they were openly suspicious of me there, and then made a cryptic claim that indicated they might be able to see the alignments of players, somehow (not until this morning did we get confirmation of the exact details).

Of course, we have to keep this in mind: If I'm lynched today, I'll flip innocent. That would immediately put a target on Negrek's back for obvious reasons, and the most likely outcome of that is that tomorrow Negrek has a strong chance of being lynched. Then the question obviously becomes "why would the Mafia fabricate all this shit for the sake of getting one innocent player lynched"... and I don't know enough about how Negrek's mind works to answer that question. I don't know enough about how the Mafia roles work to answer that question, either. Maybe there's some secret power the Mafia has access to such that "ensuring" an Innocent lynch (or hell, maybe me getting lynched, not that I have any idea why it'd be me specifically) today by way of this fabrication about my role is enough to set something up for success in the future - as opposed to just letting the cards fall where they fall and "hoping" that neither Negrek nor whoever is the third Mafia is (maybe it's Jack or maybe that was a second red herring) suspected of Mafiadom during the day phase today. Does that make any sort of sense?

Actually wait I just considered something. There are most likely 5 innocent and 2 Mafia players remaining in the game (even if not part of the Oracle role, 3 does seem like a reasonable number). MF's games tend to go such that if 50% of remaining players are Mafia, the Mafia wins, right? If Negrek is gunning for my lynch, I could see the game proceeding like this:

-I'm lynched. I'm innocent (4 innocent/2 Mafia remaining).
-Innocent is nightkilled (3 innocent/2 Mafia remaining).
-Negrek is lynched because of the reasons described above (3 Innocent/1 Mafia remaining).
-Innocent is nightkilled (2 Innocent/1 Mafia remaining).

Now, here's where I think Negrek is going with this. I said earlier that I wasn't sure why Negrek would claim me as Mafia because once I'm lynched and flip innocent, this obviously means Negrek has to be Mafia and "why would you waste your life over 1 innocent's" - well, here's what I think is the answer. I kind of implied earlier that Negrek might be using the Oracle cover as a way to make us trust them because of the ILS claim, and the idea would be that Negrek could protect themselves and Jack. I even said it's likely that Jack is mafia if Negrek is. Well, if/when Negrek flips Mafia, suspicion would likely fall on Jack because of all the reasons I've described, plus the fact that people were suspecting Jack anyway. When the game is down to 2 innocents and 1 mafia... I suspect that Jack will one of the Innocents, the other innocent is probably ILS, and this means the last Mafia member is the 3rd player - but the idea is that ILS and the last Mafia member will be suspecting Jack because of the suspicious-by-proxy stuff, Jack gets lynched, Mafia wins.

So I think Oracle might be a convenient claim that's being used to set up a far-reaching plan utilizing the way people tend to act in Mafia games and psychology to all but "guarantee" the win. I'm simply the first one on the chopping block because I have the ability to prevent the night kill going through, even if I end up dying because of it... and because Butterfree was already suspicious of me, I'd imagine, helps to cement that decision.

I said in my last post that Negrek could be self-aligned or an innocent that has it out for me. There is a possibility Negrek is an activated alien from an earlier no-kill night (since I don't have any way of confirming if my heals worked) who is utilizing this oracle claim to get lynched for all the same reasons I've discussed, and that's definitely a possibility to keep in mind - and the whole reason I'm not voting for Negrek immediately yet. I think the Innocent-but-lying claim is a lot less likely than I initially thought, though, enough to be discounted.

But the fact of the matter is that I'm not Mafia and I'm pretty sure - no, very sure - this is just an elaborate set-up. I can't prove it any more than I've already tried to, though... if I end up getting lynched, so be it. I've said my piece, I suppose, and there isn't any more I can do. I just hope I've prevented a convincing argument, because if not, like I said I can easily see this game proceeding right into the Mafia's hands.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

I actually swapped Negrek and myself last night. I was assuming she was a straight up inspector, so I figured I was most valuable as a sacrifice to get another night's worth of inspection results. I guess the scum just went a different direction altogether.

Seven of us left, of whom two are scum (if Negrek's info is to be trusted). If we assume one of Negrek and Altissimo is scum, lynch wrong today, have a nightkill, lynch the other correctly tomorrow, and then have another nightkill, at no point does that put us in a losing situation (and we'll end up, worst case scenario, two day phases from now with three people left including one scum), so I think this is a fairly safe situation for us, thankfully.

Granted, that's based on the assumption that all the people we have left are either innocent or scum, with none self-aligned. That might throw a wrench into things.

In any case, I've been more lowkey suspicious of Altissimo than Negrek so far in this game, but that's been based on tone/general impressions rather than anything actually definitive, so I'm more than open to see what everyone else wants to do before I decide who to vote for.

(This was as much as I was going to write, but then I hit preview and wooooow Altissimo that's a long post that suddenly popped up)

So yeah, that's an awful lot of reasoning that frankly seems to me like it's kind of meant to confuse us as to who is and isn't scum? Like, why are you saying I'm probably scum and then saying Negrek is just trying to make it look like I'm scum and that I'm actually innocent? I have legitimately no idea what you're trying to do here if not confuse people.

Hypothesis: Negrek and Altissimo are both scum, and they're trying to pull a ploy so whoever gets lynched first and flips scum "proves" the innocence of the other, because we've been operating under an either/or assumption.
 
Re: Villainous Team Choice Pokémafia - Game Thread

So yeah, that's an awful lot of reasoning that frankly seems to me like it's kind of meant to confuse us as to who is and isn't scum? Like, why are you saying I'm probably scum and then saying Negrek is just trying to make it look like I'm scum and that I'm actually innocent? I have legitimately no idea what you're trying to do here if not confuse people.

I... wasn't trying to confuse anyone???? My intent was basically sharing my thought process. My thought process went from "Negrek is protecting the other Mafia, Jack" to "NO WAIT THAT'S NOT IT THAT'S THE THING" but I wanted to at least leave my line of reasoning there for others to follow?

Okay, here, I'll make it less confusing, here's what I think is happening.

Actually wait I just considered something. There are most likely 5 innocent and 2 Mafia players remaining in the game (even if not part of the Oracle role, 3 does seem like a reasonable number). MF's games tend to go such that if 50% of remaining players are Mafia, the Mafia wins, right? If Negrek is gunning for my lynch, I could see the game proceeding like this:

-I'm lynched. I'm innocent (4 innocent/2 Mafia remaining).
-Innocent is nightkilled (3 innocent/2 Mafia remaining).
-Negrek is lynched because of the reasons described above (3 Innocent/1 Mafia remaining).
-Innocent is nightkilled (2 Innocent/1 Mafia remaining).

Now, here's where I think Negrek is going with this. I said earlier that I wasn't sure why Negrek would claim me as Mafia because once I'm lynched and flip innocent, this obviously means Negrek has to be Mafia and "why would you waste your life over 1 innocent's" - well, here's what I think is the answer. I kind of implied earlier that Negrek might be using the Oracle cover as a way to make us trust them because of the ILS claim, and the idea would be that Negrek could protect themselves and Jack. I even said it's likely that Jack is mafia if Negrek is. Well, if/when Negrek flips Mafia, suspicion would likely fall on Jack because of all the reasons I've described, plus the fact that people were suspecting Jack anyway. When the game is down to 2 innocents and 1 mafia... I suspect that Jack will one of the Innocents, the other innocent is probably ILS, and this means the last Mafia member is the 3rd player - but the idea is that ILS and the last Mafia member will be suspecting Jack because of the suspicious-by-proxy stuff, Jack gets lynched, Mafia wins.

So I think Oracle might be a convenient claim that's being used to set up a far-reaching plan utilizing the way people tend to act in Mafia games and psychology to all but "guarantee" the win. I'm simply the first one on the chopping block because I have the ability to prevent the night kill going through, even if I end up dying because of it... and because Butterfree was already suspicious of me, I'd imagine, helps to cement that decision.

This part of the post. This is what I believe.
 
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