Cats (2019) Mafia

[Tangrowth]

If anyone has interesting stuff to throw at me, let me know with the mention thingy as always and I'll try to prioritize appropriately.

 

[Keldeo]

Spoiler

Sorry,

Oh no, sorry,

Also, sorry

:V

 

[Keldeo]

If anyone has interesting stuff to throw at me, let me know with the mention thingy as always and I'll try to prioritize appropriately.

Hey MP, glad you're here! I'm not sure how caught up you are, but imo the biggest event so far toDay is VM casing kyeugh and a bunch of stuff resulting from that starting at #1270

 

[Tangrowth]

If anyone has interesting stuff to throw at me, let me know with the mention thingy as always and I'll try to prioritize appropriately.

Hey MP, glad you're here! I'm not sure how caught up you are, but imo the biggest event so far toDay is VM casing kyeugh and a bunch of stuff resulting from that starting at #1270

Thanks, Keldeo! The answer is... not very, haha, but I appreciate you all being patient with me and I'll try to continue to make reads nonetheless. It's sort of like I'm a constant replacement for myself.

Let me take a look at that now.

 

[mewtini]

If anyone has interesting stuff to throw at me, let me know with the mention thingy as always and I'll try to prioritize appropriately.

if it helps i have an annotated readlist though it's from (irl) last night

 

[Tangrowth]

If anyone has interesting stuff to throw at me, let me know with the mention thingy as always and I'll try to prioritize appropriately.

if it helps i have an annotated readlist though it's from (irl) last night

Thank you! Definitely helps.

 

[Trebek]

Just catching up on recent discourse, not sure how much unique vibes i have to add to the VM discussion except for that i 100% agree with what keldeo said here:

My thought on the read itself is that I disagree with VM's initial assertion that kyeugh is more scummy because she led wagons onto villagers, in a vacuum. I do think that fact is potentially scum-indicative because my impression of mafia kyeugh is that she's somewhat hesitant to bus/more likely to just push villagers, and also kind of agenda-y in doing so, but it's not damning to me because town can be wrong, and I agree with Butterfree in that I see no real motive for mafia kyeugh to self-incriminate in that way by killing Seshas the next night.

i have more emotional investment in the "kyeugh isnt mafia" camp than i have in the "VM is sus for FoSing kyeugh" camp, but still something that i am going to keep on the back burner of my brain.

also, i would be really surprised if it turned out that the n0 kill was a vig kill - flavorwise, i feel like it makes much more sense for a townkill to have the same flavor as a lynching and for the mafiakills to involve disappearance

 

[Trebek]

although, with all that in mind, i still think i want to keep my vote parked on emmy for now and see if she has more to say, unless something monumental happens

 

[Tangrowth]

Spoiler

Let's talk probability!

If kyeugh is town, and were to vote at random from the other players, the chance of hitting town would be 68.4%

13/19 = .684

If kyeugh were to pick another player, the chance of voting two town players in a row drops to 45.6%

(12/18)*(13/19) = .667

Now if kyeugh were to vote one more player, the chance of voting three town players in a row drops to 29.5%

(11/17)*(12/18)*(13/19) = .295

Sure, it's still quite possible that kyeugh just was unlucky. If this were to happen to anyone else I might overlook it, but kyeugh was the person who started two of those wagons. If I were to wager on anyone being mafia right now, I'd bet my money on kyeugh.

I struggle to understand this mindset. Players in this game aren't playing in a vacuum, so I don't think random voting is a sensible proxy for about anything.

In my experience, I actually would assert that players who start wagons are more likely to be town than scum, but it absolutely is player and situation dependent.

 

[rari_teh]

I realize I just got done saying that I'm not sure where I land on VM and Skylar, besides "maybe v/v pending further exploration", but I'm somewhat side-eyeing people who had sort of an "I encourage where this is going, but hey it could be wrong" reaction to his initial push. It feels like keeping options open. Primarily ILS's response below, but I also found koko and Herbe's responses looking back.

I see where you’re coming from, but I def don’t feel the same way tbh
I see it more like I am intrigued, but still not convinced by this. Let’s talk more and I’ll see if I can make my mind about it

also, i would be really surprised if it turned out that the n0 kill was a vig kill - flavorwise, i feel like it makes much more sense for a townkill to have the same flavor as a lynching and for the mafiakills to involve disappearance

very good catch tbh

I’m probably going to bed rn. good night y’all <3

 

[Tangrowth]

Spoiler

Incidentally I remembered M+7 asked me some questions I never got to answer yesterday, so for good measure:

Oh, you played in Champs? Awesome! What game?

What about Stryke and Ultracool feels pure? I agree with you on the latter, not sure about the former.

I played in season 5 game 1! (I'm antialiasis.)

I guess Stryke being pure is kind of irrelevant now, but I believe was particularly thinking of stuff like #958, where he expressed not liking any of the opposing lynch trains while he was under attack. In general it felt like he was reasoning from a genuine, non-opportunistic perspective.

Oh, cool! I played in Season 5 too! Game 9.

 

[Keldeo]

OH I completely forgot about the n0 flavor haha. Thanks for the reminder.

--

@Vipera Magnifica I have a couple questions -

fwiw don't take my "statistics" post as the main argument against skylar, it's not really meant to be any kind of hard evidence nor is it anything less than a highly simplified model, it was more just me thinking "what are the chances someone would randomly vote for 3 townies from this setup" and then actually trying to calculate those chances as best I could. the real thing that made me suspicious of her is the timing of her votes, and I have a hunch that several of the 6 mafia members are among the most active players

i'm only like 70% certain she's mafia at this point, but honestly i'd like to hear the reasons so many of you don't think she's mafia. so far all i'm hearing is "good vibes" but considering this is the woman that played many of you like a fiddle in tvtropes mafia, you'd think people would be more wary of her ability to feign towniness

Can I ask, who are these people / why do you have that hunch?

actually tbh sorry to interrogate you more vm but

he’s pretty likely to be scum regardless of skylar’s alignment

what do you mean by this. just statistically?

I think if skylar is town, there is a very good chance that Mr. Ultracool is mafia for the same reasons that people suspected him yesterday.

If my theory is correct and skylar is mafia, then it's just like her to bus her mafia partner to throw suspicion off herself, especially when she never intended for it to become a wagon and was only doing it as an empty gesture.

Can you talk a bit more about Mr. Ultracool being mafia in a Skylar town world? In other words, what reasons are you picking out here?

He's still been lurking, so I feel like maybe we'll just have to bite the bullet and time-out him at some point, but because he lurked in TVTropes, I don't actually know if that makes him mafia Mr. Ultracool instead of just Mr. Ultracool, haha.

 

[mewtini]

Also, sorry if you mentioned it later and I missed it, but can you tell me more about if you looked into this?

yeah. idk if it was that fruitful tbh. it's one of the things substantiating my trebek worry. during the last 10 minutes of EoD he wrote 2 posts (1124, 1131) correcting m+7's interpretation of something he'd said, and wrote a third post (1143) where he kind of casually voted for myuma

the other person is bfree but like, to a lesser degree; in 1015 she says stryke feels pure to her and in 1147 she votes myuma because she agreed with skylar's case (keeping in mind that skylar is a bfree hypoclear)

Spoiler: EoD vote history (from skylar starting strykewagon)

skylar/stryke (#907)
rari/stryke (#909)
herbe/stryke (#910)
mewtini/VM (#950)
myuma/stryke (#957)
mewtini/myuma (#979)
emmy/uvote (#997)
rari/myuma (#1032)
skylar/myuma (#1040)
tofu/abstain (#1058)
kokorico/stryke (#1059)
keldeo/myuma (#1072)
blu/myuma (#1111)
keldeo/stryke (#1120)
rari/stryke (#1132)
m+7/myuma (#1140)
keldeo/myuma (#1141)
trebek/myuma (#1143)
bfree/myuma (#1147)
keldeo/stryke (#1155)
mewtini/stryke (#1162)
m+7/stryke (#1163)

 

[Trebek]

where he kind of casually voted for myuma

yeah, i fully admit that i played last EoD poorly: i totally forgot about it until a little bit before it happened, and ended up making my decision/vote without clearly articulating. i didnt switch my vote over to stryke after his vt claim bc i personally found it more likely than not to be true, but i didnt trust my gut enough to try and say anything about it / convince people to not flip stryke

 

[Tangrowth]

fwiw don't take my "statistics" post as the main argument against skylar, it's not really meant to be any kind of hard evidence nor is it anything less than a highly simplified model, it was more just me thinking "what are the chances someone would randomly vote for 3 townies from this setup" and then actually trying to calculate those chances as best I could. the real thing that made me suspicious of her is the timing of her votes, and I have a hunch that several of the 6 mafia members are among the most active players

i'm only like 70% certain she's mafia at this point, but honestly i'd like to hear the reasons so many of you don't think she's mafia. so far all i'm hearing is "good vibes" but considering this is the woman that played many of you like a fiddle in tvtropes mafia, you'd think people would be more wary of her ability to feign towniness

VM, do you suspect anyone in particular of this?

 

[Trebek]

more likely than not to be true

so after re-checking the numbers, this wouldnt statistically be true (there are 11 people who would feasibly claim vt, and 5 of them are actually vt) - my stryke sympathy was more of a gut feeling than anything

 

[mewtini]

keldeo i'm answering your other question still, but i feel like i should probably clarify that my point was that i was concerned that he was weirdly optics-focused in an EoD scenario rather than wagoninvestigating/catching up

 

[Tangrowth]

@Keldeo we need you bro ...

Hi! I won a kind of exhausting game on another site early this morning and I'm still riding high, haha. I'll try to get caught up by tonight - ping me if you have any specific questions?

Shhhhh, that game never happened.

 

[Trebek]

keldeo i'm answering your other question still, but i feel like i should probably clarify that my point was that i was concerned that he was weirdly optics-focused in an EoD scenario rather than wagoninvestigating/catching up

i can't think of a good way to say this that doesnt come across as bonus optics, but fwiw i totally admit that my priorities were scrambled last EoD

 

[Trebek]

keldeo i'm answering your other question still, but i feel like i should probably clarify that my point was that i was concerned that he was weirdly optics-focused in an EoD scenario rather than wagoninvestigating/catching up

i can't think of a good way to say this that doesnt come across as bonus optics, but fwiw i totally admit that my priorities were scrambled last EoD

as far as what i made posts about