Cats (2019) Mafia

[Keldeo]

I am going to be extremely shocked if Keldeo is not mafia.

Everyone how shocked!

 

[Bluwiikoon]

Bruh lol

 

[Keldeo]

Spoiler: look at this graph

Town PRs: (5/10)
ILS
RNP
Emmy
Herbe
Tofu (according to VM)

Vanilla town: (2/5)
Stryke
Keldeo

Living PR claims: (6/5)
Vipera Magnifica (vigilante)
Butterfree (fishing bro, always with MP7 if mafia)
M Plus 7 (probable fishing bro, always with Butterfree if mafia)
mewtini (is godfather, or there is a redirector on mafia who got very lucky, if she is mafia)
rari_teh (neighborizer)
kyeugh (one-shot necromancer who was blocked)

Living vanilla claims: (4/3)
Bluwiikoon
kokorico
Trebek
Mist1422

Unknown:
Mawile
Seshas
myuma
Mr. Ultracool

Mr. Ultracool, if ingroup (not a big if at this point), was likely either a weak PR or vanilla because any possible world had at least one busser... I'm leaning toward weak PR because of the five mafia left, 3 PRs, 2 vanilla is somewhat more viable for worldbuilding than 4 PRs, 1 vanilla. This actually probably doesn't matter because mafia PRs can always have claimed vanilla.

--

So if N of 3 of the unconfirmed vanilla claims are vanilla mafia, 4-N of the power role claims are mafia power roles. At least 2 of the PR claims need to be real, otherwise we wouldn't have enough town PRs total. So any N from 0-3 would work even if some of them are mechanically dubious.

I find Skylar's claim and focus on me and later Trebek fairly problematic and I can talk about this more later. Her insistence on Herbe being mafia yesterday and her pushing RNP are also like straightforwardly bad looks. I think Rari's vote on/conversation with kyeugh makes them probably not w/w - if they are, I'm going to mindread that the exact world is that Rari is bussing kyeugh toDay to set me up toMorrow.

At least one PR claim is lying, so then if I had to choose one between Rari and kyeugh in the "simple world" where all of the straightforward town-seeming PRs are town... Both of their claims are pretty much flavor-clear and Skylar's claim is better in terms of the role being more likely town if it's true, but Skylar's role is literally unprovable now according to her. But I don't think mafia have a flavor cop after Blu's claim, so maybe they got lucky about it. Gun-to-head, maybe kyeugh because of her behavioral scumminess?

So the world I was thinking about, Blu/kyeugh/koko/Mist/Trebek, is actually a possible world after counting the PRs but really I don't see why mafia would all claim VT. Unless they have scummy roles, which is possible with Herbe being town. - BUT Trebek and Skylar are like definitely not w/w behaviorally after that conversation. That means at least one more PR is lying. Could possibly swap Rari for Skylar here?

Almost becoming enamored of dark fishing brothers theory because the wagon formation and ugh MP7's hedgy post on Herbe... Blu/kyeugh/Butterfree/MP7/(either Mist or kokorico) maybe makes sense? That would allow for maximum non-bussers, which makes sense to me conceptually. This is only if like mafia fishing brothers are actually a thing - it's an interesting setup design if that's the case. I think dark fishing brothers means mewtini and VM would both be town, because with that amount of town kills, it could make sense for mafia to be able to equalize their numbers / retaliate.

I don't think I can solve this completely mechanically.

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Mr. Ultracool (8) (Tofu, Herbe, rari_teh, Mist1422, M Plus 7, kokorico, mewtini, Trebek)
Herbe (7) (Butterfree, Bluwiikoon, kyeugh, Keldeo, Mr. Ultracool, I liek Squirtles, Vipera Magnifica)

This is still a weird as hell wagon formation. Unconfirmed on Herbe are [Butterfree, kyeugh, VM] (where VM is basically... pretty close to clear as far as I'm concerned - I should probably fully interrogate my thoughts about this) vs. unconfirmed on Mr. Ultracool are [rari, Mist, MP7, koko, Trebek].

@M Plus 7 why did you not vote with your fishing brother at EOD2?

 

[Keldeo]

Votes should be on me or Blu today btw.

 

[Keldeo]

Oh lol another point against VM being partners with Butterfree/MP7 is that he was the first person to call out the possibility of dark fishing brothers iirc

 

[mewtini]

to be pretty honest i fully believe this is a gambit to get yourself lynched instead of kyeugh

Votes should be on me or Blu today btw.

hm

i'm going to sleep soon so i will engage with the rest of this later though, sorry; gn keldeoooo!

 

[Keldeo]

I know they're both busy. But I haven't been able to find MP7 and they've not been interacting with me. Butterfree has made long posts but doesn't actually have a good record. Galaxy brain??

Oh lol another point against VM being partners with Butterfree/MP7 is that he was the first person to call out the possibility of dark fishing brothers iirc

I think I'm on VM is not mafia anyway, because a mafia vig is wild and I'm like... I think mafia VM would just have shot Tofu earlier if he had figured that out. I think that's what I'm hanging the read on.

I think I'm also close to locking mewtini because godfather her + mafia one-shot vig is just weird and convoluted and if I assume that mewtini claimed early to Rari, that would mean she was exactly with Rari. I know she represented her clear on Rari as real, but I don't really love that world. Why would she just not claim actual masons trying to fake out people with a doctor claim or something, and let the kill go unclaimed?

 

[rari_teh]

ok i’ll bite, but only temporarily
why do you assume that if vm is mafia he must be a dark vig?
skylar herself said that, if he’s mafia, he’s “riding tofu’s corpse”

in other words, if vm is mafia, he’s literally anything but a vig and all his future vigkills will be “blocked” or “deflected”

 

[Keldeo]

Oh no, brain fart, claiming masons doesn't make sense unless they're also with kyeugh, because Rari neighborized her. Don't think that was the move for Rari if they were building up to a mason claim.

Butterfree has made long posts but doesn't actually have a good record.

i.e. voting Herbe, essentially, and this isn't a good record thing, but... not doing super much with a confirmed town status, particularly today? That's why I was vaguely suspicious of Panini in TVT.

 

[Keldeo]

ok i’ll bite, but only temporarily
why do you assume that if vm is mafia he must be a dark vig?
skylar herself said that, if he’s mafia, he’s “riding tofu’s corpse”

in other words, if vm is mafia, he’s literally anything but a vig and all his future vigkills will be “blocked” or “deflected”

So like if VM is mafia, Tofu would be the vig whose ILS and Herbe kills he's claiming, right?

I actually thought she claimed to him earlier, she claimed to him d2. I guess I just don't know why he wouldn't attempt to nightkill Tofu that night, because unless he's with mewtini Emmy was apparently being protected? And given everything else we know, I think the two options are that the kill was on Indigo that night or the kill was on ILS's doctor target. I don't think ILS would target Tofu that night.

 

[Keldeo]

I'm like pretty sure that if (mewtini is town and) ILS targeted a living player that night, that person is clear because the "why target Emmy" argument from earlier still applies I think? But I don't have a lot of confidence in my ability to mindread that heal.

 

[Keldeo]

Ok so ultracool seems a bit fishy to me, if only because of VM's decisive statement in #1590. ALSO there's something here that Mr. Ultracool posted that also makes me suspect Tofu as well, since I'm a bit more inclined to believe VM is vig:

Announcement to all cops (if there are any): Please check kyeugh tonight.

Telling the cop whom to check seems quite fishy, too - what if the Maf has a Watcher?
IndigoEmmy

Mr. Ultracool

This is why I think he wouldn't heal Tofu, ftr.

 

[Trebek]

I actually thought she claimed to him earlier, she claimed to him d2. I guess I just don't know why he wouldn't attempt to nightkill Tofu that night, because unless he's with mewtini Emmy was apparently being protected?

i can 100% see tofu being vig and w!vm not nightkilling - it’d be way too suspicious if someone codeclaimed to someone else and then immediately died imo

 

[rari_teh]

I actually thought she claimed to him earlier, she claimed to him d2. I guess I just don't know why he wouldn't attempt to nightkill Tofu that night

maybe because all the scumreads she was voicing were wrong tbh
a vig who doesn’t know where to shoot is as good to the mafia as a second don

 

[kyeugh]

i’m not sure i understand why vm would target tofu. regardless of his alignment i think he had her pocketed basically immediately and if he was scum it would be good for him to have her around

 

[Keldeo]

I actually thought she claimed to him earlier, she claimed to him d2. I guess I just don't know why he wouldn't attempt to nightkill Tofu that night, because unless he's with mewtini Emmy was apparently being protected?

i can 100% see tofu being vig and w!vm not nightkilling - it’d be way too suspicious if someone codeclaimed to someone else and then immediately died imo

Is this something you can see or something that you believe in?

 

[kyeugh]

also this blu thing is hilarious but i don’t think it’s totally impossible keldeo is faking it? i kind of want to wait it out but i’m not sure what could happen that would push me more to one way

 

[Trebek]

I actually thought she claimed to him earlier, she claimed to him d2. I guess I just don't know why he wouldn't attempt to nightkill Tofu that night, because unless he's with mewtini Emmy was apparently being protected?

i can 100% see tofu being vig and w!vm not nightkilling - it’d be way too suspicious if someone codeclaimed to someone else and then immediately died imo

Is this something you can see or something that you believe in?

that will be determined based on if vig kills continue to happen

 

[kyeugh]

I actually thought she claimed to him earlier, she claimed to him d2. I guess I just don't know why he wouldn't attempt to nightkill Tofu that night, because unless he's with mewtini Emmy was apparently being protected?

i can 100% see tofu being vig and w!vm not nightkilling - it’d be way too suspicious if someone codeclaimed to someone else and then immediately died imo

Is this something you can see or something that you believe in?

that will be determined based on if vig kills continue to happen

not really sold on this tbh, the mafia have a roleblocker

 

[Keldeo]

also this blu thing is hilarious but i don’t think it’s totally impossible keldeo is faking it? i kind of want to wait it out but i’m not sure what could happen that would push me more to one way

Oh oops I completely forgot to get my soft.

Me and my seer cover (new band name)

This is an awful band name imo tbh. No one calls cops seers / cop cover seer cover here so I didn't want to use it too much but.

I'll case Blu tomorrow maybe... kinda fading and I basically pretzeled my brain trying to think about this mechanically and failing