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Tarot Mafia

just skimmed back over the thread, some thoughts rq:
Seshas said:
With 18 players I think we're looking at 4 wolves and some assorted outgroups/3rd parties (unless VM usually has a different ratio)
just to deny all outrageous derpclears w/r/t that
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based on this and other mech spec it seems like people are assuming there’s probably an outgroup and i’m not really sold on that being the case. it’s definitely a possibility we should be alert to and i understand it being brought up in the mist discussion, but at the same time i feel like (and correct me if i’m wrong) that outgroups existing at all, particularly with more than one member, is rarer than not and we’ve kind of collectively been hyperaware of that possibility since tvt. i’m going to personally be assuming there’s at most one outgroup member until there’s reason to suggest otherwise, though i will keep my eyes peeled.
kokorico said:
Big side-eye at this, given that you also fakeclaimed an obscure convoluted role relating to an items mechanic in Cats (2019). Tbqh, if it were later in the Day, I would immediately vote for you just based on that. And I definitely think anyone with a nonlethal town PR would be foolish to target you toNight.
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i disagree with this. for one thing, ultracool made his claim in cats out of necessity when he was staring down the barrel of the gun, so i don’t really think it’s fair to compare these situations. this claim is also pretty easily tested—he even said that he doesn’t believe that he can’t be blocked, so he can’t even hide behind that defense if it fails. also, assuming ultracool is telling the truth, i think it makes sense for him to just claim straight out the door—his role is potent but useless if no one is visiting him. i understand some degree of suspicion but this reaction seems far to me.

reads-wise, all things considered, i feel pretty good about uc for now. i can already feel myself falling into keldeo’s and bfree’s pockets as usual. i agree with keldeo that i don’t quite see mf as towny yet, but mewtini’s observation about her realtiming is something.
 
Keldeo said:
post #178
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now there's the Keldeo pushing/solveyness that I was hoping and expecting to see!

Keldeo said:
@JackPK, I have some questions about your reads! Can you elaborate on why you think Seshas's shade of Herbe makes them suspicious, considering that they kind of ended up disavowing that shade - if they were jumping on Herbe, I'd expect something different? You seem to be hinging some of your green reads (Trebek, koko, Herbe) on their responses to this shade, do you have anything in their posts on their own that you like? For Mr. Ultracool, I don't think role speculation and claiming are alignment-indicative; i.e. they may be "anti-town" but do not make him "not town" imo. Also, is there something specific in MF's posting that you don't think she could replicate as mafia?
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Hm, I think most of my sideeying at Seshas is that I really don't understand what they were going for there. It seemed to me like it was more likely than not to be scum!Seshas trying to stir up doubt, then backing off when that attempt didn't work — or, I guess, it's also possible it could have been town!Seshas finding something they legit thought was reasonable, then backing off when no one else took it as reasonable. (I don't mean to hedge here, this is just to say: as I said before, this is only a very slightly more-red-than-neutral vibe for me, I will be more comfortable solidifying it as either more red or less red when I have more data to process it alongside.)

On my reread I didn't see anything from Trebek/koko/Herbe/Seshas that particularly spoke to me one way or the other besides that whole interaction, so if we snipped out that interaction, all four of them would go in the neutral pile with mewt and Butterfree. As my label noted, the reads on Trebek/koko/Herbe aren't outright "good" so much as "I liked one thing but don't feel comfortable putting them all the way into 'good' yet"

About M&F: I agree with Seshas in #187 that she seems pretty relaxed in a genuine-feeling way. I don't know whether or not she could replicate this sense as mafia, but at least compared to what I remember of her in TVTropes, she didn't replicate this sense in that game, so that's enough for me for the moment.

storm said:
doubling your vote? that seems really powerful, is that a legit kind of ability/item in mafia usually?
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As far as I've run into it, it's usually just someone's entire inherent role (i.e. "doublevoter"), and I haven't seen it as an item before. But especially since this game was advertised as "shenanigans", it could potentially be an item.

kyeugh said:
post #201
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ah and there's the kyeughposting I was also hoping and expecting to see! You make a good point re: outgroup. I'm still not convinced I agree with you and Keldeo about Ultracool, but like you said, it's easily tested so I'm willing to set him aside for toDay and wait til toMorrow to sort him.
 
JackPK said:
About M&F: I agree with Seshas in #187 that she seems pretty relaxed in a genuine-feeling way. I don't know whether or not she could replicate this sense as mafia, but at least compared to what I remember of her in TVTropes, she didn't replicate this sense in that game, so that's enough for me for the moment.
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Oh, another postscript re:M&F: In TVT I often could not really follow her line of thinking in her walls of text, and in retrospect I'm of the opinion that may have been an intentional effort by scum!her to obfuscate and confuse in order to look thoughtful without actually being thoughtful. By contrast, in this game I'm easily understanding what she's been saying, so that also inclines me to read her as towny.
 
I do have to admit, as has been pointed out: if I sound more relaxed/productive this game, I'd definitely consider the saner game pace a major factor towards it, besides that I'm also now off classes and stuff

anyways, let's see... for one thing, I can't say I dig jack's vibes so far. the mechspec's eh, but I'm sensing this colossal countertunnel on seshas for putting him on the spot and I daresay it's not the look of the season

I'm not sure what to make of mr. ultracool's claim; at the risk of starting to sound like my tvt mafia self again, I might have to go reread some posts. in particular, I need to verif on exactly how spontaneous that was, so I can best figure out where to draw the line between "oversharing, but not in any fantastically alignment indicative fashion" and "making shit up hastily due to being on the spot". (that this is apparently similar to a previous fakeclaim might lend credence to the latter, but then, I suppose it's not very charitable to count on the level of low imagination needed to attempt the same fakeclaim that has very recently not worked. WIFOM, I guess?)

(can confirm, in any case, that doublevoting is a reasonably common power in this here meta too. it historically hasn't really been a meaningful power considering that most lynching was done in barely contested bandwagons or not at all -- but I suppose it'd be pretty exciting to see how it handles now that the day game is livelier. assuming it actually exists in this setup, that is)

activity levels strike me as a bit of a sketchy thing to read off of at the moment; sure, do keep track, but I mean, we're just past the half of D1. mafia's a time commitment and all, but sometimes people are just busy/tired/elsewhere for one single day. 's more important to observe long-term patterns of inactivity than simply going "hey you ain't posted yet"
 
ok so i just went back and reread through the thread and here are the vibes im noticing thus far:
(if i say slightly contradictory things its bc im continually updating this post as im reading through stuff and want to just post sort of my Live Reaction to the thread)

im fine with believing mist about the existence of a third party, but i have a feeling that mist's 35 is just a meme. not going to speculate further about this bc i dont want to get stabbed / i think that this speculation will be more useful when more mechanics are revealed

i mentioned this earlier, but i vibe with herbe's 41 and i dont really see it as hedgeing/something to get scumread over (although admittedly i also dont fault seshas for reading into it differently than i did)

as far as ultracool goes, i'm not sure how i feel. on the one hand, if hes telling the truth and we can get bonuses from visiting him, thats amazing and i applaud/support him coming forth with it D1. on the other hand, part of me is wondering if its too good to be true? like, what happens if mafia visit him - do they get upgrades as well? i guess part of me is just paranoid about something crazy like a w!paranoid gun owner? although to be fair i dont think that would line up with a Wheel of Fortune flavorclaim. i guess at the end of the day im townleanling uc, and glad that hes posting, but idk if i trust it enough to support a mass visitation to him N1, if that makes sense? brain confused
(jack's 150 i think sums up how i feel about this: its a ballsy claim regardless of wether its a v!wheel of fortune or a w!wheel of fotune, wether or not thats a good thing is yet to be decided)

i agree with seshas's 121 about koko vibes - i admittedly am very bad at figuring out early vibes, but i think comparing this early game with cats makes me want to gut TR em

idk how i feel about people side-eyeing jack's mechspec: this may just be a personal preference / a misinformed gut reaction to how people talk in thread, but i always get sorta weirded out when someone makes mechspec posts and then other people side-eye them over people who aren't actually contributing? this may just be bias on my part bc people who dont post also aren't typically the center of discussion, but its just something ive noticed. just feels weird to see someone getting side-eyed for what very well could be a genuine desire to contribute to thread, even if the only way they can do so is mechspec
(this is also probably just personal bias bc i feel much more comfortable making mechspec posts than vibespec posts/have a tendency to want to TR people just for contributing, so i probably just need to get over myself tbh)
(obviously, if someone only mechspecs for the entire game, thats a different story, but it seems like a weird thing to jump on D1 - again might just be me)

in re - start of M&F's 207: i dont really see jack's side-eyeing of seshas as a "collosal countertunnel," especially since as far as i see it, he posted about seshas in his big vibe post, and then brought it up a second time specifically when Keldeo asked him about it? i might be missing something in the ISO here, but i dont see jack's vibes as a negative thing rn
so im posting this without heavily editing it which is probably a mistake, but i would rather get my thoughts out sooner than later. i am around in real-time tho if any of what i just said doesn't make sense / people want to talk about other things! (i would say that if i didnt mention it in this post, i am probably Head Empty about it? but that could have been bc i passed over it while rereading, so i will gladly go look at stuff again if it comes up in conversation

(this is also a very unpolished post just bc im sorta trying out something new here: i was very disappointed with how i played in Snomfia and don't want to repeat that playstyle)
 
I think it'd be helpful at this stage in the day if people placed some votes! Even if you're not sure about where to vote, you can always change it later.

I guess I'm being a bit hypocritical here because I actually have zero idea where I want to vote. I suppose I didn't like kokorico jumping on Ultracool but I thought eir VM grocery list thing was hilarious. I'll revisit things later tonight.
 
kyeugh said:
i disagree with this. for one thing, ultracool made his claim in cats out of necessity when he was staring down the barrel of the gun, so i don’t really think it’s fair to compare these situations. this claim is also pretty easily tested—he even said that he doesn’t believe that he can’t be blocked, so he can’t even hide behind that defense if it fails. also, assuming ultracool is telling the truth, i think it makes sense for him to just claim straight out the door—his role is potent but useless if no one is visiting him. i understand some degree of suspicion but this reaction seems far to me.
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I think all of this relies on assumptions that aren't necessarily true unless you already believe the claim. The claim is well outside the realm of ordinary roles; so is the other plausible alternative, that he's some sort of antitown role that wants to be targeted by as many people as possible for some reason. Given that, I don't see how you can say with certainty that standard assumptions, like that he doesn't feel any sort of external pressure to claim now, or even that he cares whether or not his claim has been falsified by D2, apply.

I could buy the argument that he considers his role to be useless if he doesn't claim (although this seems less likely with the revelation that the mafia can benefit from it too), but conversely, believing his claim requires you to believe that he happened to rand a role that's both extremely unusual and extremely similar to something he's fakeclaimed in the past. I accept that both possibilities require a certain amount of suspension of disbelief, so if you or anyone can think of a plausible third explanation I'd like to hear it, but right now it seems to me that believing him requires more brain-acrobatics than not.

Trebek said:
idk how i feel about people side-eyeing jack's mechspec: this may just be a personal preference / a misinformed gut reaction to how people talk in thread, but i always get sorta weirded out when someone makes mechspec posts and then other people side-eye them over people who aren't actually contributing? this may just be bias on my part bc people who dont post also aren't typically the center of discussion, but its just something ive noticed. just feels weird to see someone getting side-eyed for what very well could be a genuine desire to contribute to thread, even if the only way they can do so is mechspec
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For what it's worth, my reaction to Jack's post was not because it was mechspec but because he presented a conclusion that wasn't really supported by any evidence. It seemed like he'd just pulled a figure for the size of the scumteam out of nowhere. I don't really still consider it a concern (he explained he was just struggling to think of something relevant to say, and having been in that position before I can totally empathise), but I wanted to clear up where the suspicion came from in the first place.

---

Aside from the above, my thoughts pretty much align with Trebek's longpost above, to the degree that I don't think it would be a good use of time to just type it all out again in my own words. The only think I can think of to add is that I feel pretty uneasy that only about half of the playerlist have said enough for anyone to have any sort of read on us. I get that, in a vacuum, low postcount doesn't necessarily mean much and real-life time pressures are often a thing, but it seems slightly bizarre for that to apply to six to eight people at once. Then again, maybe the last few games have just given me an unrealistically high expectation for how much people talk in MU-style mafia!

Also, @Butterfree, if/when you have time I'd be curious what you think about Jack's tierlist - is there anything you particularly agree or disagree with?
 
Mm... kokorico, I think looking at it like "Mr. Ultracool's claim includes items here, and his fake claim included items in Cats" is being overly reductive. I don't see why VM wouldn't include unusual or item-based roles in this game - in fact, I'd expect him to make unusual roles.

This might come down to a difference in what we perceive as plausible role-wise, where we probably won't budge each other by discussing it further. And that's fine, I don't have much interest in arguing this further unless you disagree with my belief that his claim is self-resolving and he would not be a good vote today (or vig shot tonight, etc.)

I'd describe the proportion of inactive people here as pretty ordinary.
 
kokorico said:
Trebek said:
idk how i feel about people side-eyeing jack's mechspec: this may just be a personal preference / a misinformed gut reaction to how people talk in thread, but i always get sorta weirded out when someone makes mechspec posts and then other people side-eye them over people who aren't actually contributing? this may just be bias on my part bc people who dont post also aren't typically the center of discussion, but its just something ive noticed. just feels weird to see someone getting side-eyed for what very well could be a genuine desire to contribute to thread, even if the only way they can do so is mechspec
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For what it's worth, my reaction to Jack's post was not because it was mechspec but because he presented a conclusion that wasn't really supported by any evidence. It seemed like he'd just pulled a figure for the size of the scumteam out of nowhere. I don't really still consider it a concern (he explained he was just struggling to think of something relevant to say, and having been in that position before I can totally empathise), but I wanted to clear up where the suspicion came from in the first place.
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oh, that makes total sense! my reaction was less of a targeted reaction to specific people than it was a general bad vibe
 
er, weird vibe is more accurate: the vibe isnt enough to warrant scumleans as far as i see it
 
for what it's worth, I can attest that genuinely randing a role you just recently fakeclaimed very much happens and it is terrible- I guess that just brings me back to the whole WIFOM on whether it makes sense for mr. ultracool to fall back on a fakeclaim that already didn't work very recently

I did see about rereading the leadup to that claim, incidentally; I'm mulling over it but I don't have a conclusion yet. on the one hand, people were getting one on him for being inactive, so it's possible that that was putting the heat under his collar, although there's no real sign of that beyond speculation; on the other hand, the claim comes out in an entirely unrelated side of the discussion, so it potentially strikes as more genuine from that angle. on the third, gross, mutant hand, however, when put under additional suspicion, he fullclaimed with the express purpose of getting the heat off himself, which is sorta yikes

... and on a fourth hand that descends from the heavens and flips me off, even if we believe mr ultracool's claim, we might be better off policy lynching him anyway because we potentially don't want the mafia getting benefits off him, and he just made it clear to them that they can have that
 
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