ASB Halloween Mafia: Day 1

[Icalasari]

EvilCrazyMonkey, here is a thought:

If I was a mafia member, then would I purposely nominate Kusarigamatchi, knowingly drawing negative attention to myself? That would be completely stupid!

Heck, if I was a Mafia, I would have paid a little more attention and nominated somebody who isn't as important to try to get you guys to kill an innocent

So, which is more likely? Me randomly nominating Kusari to try to get somebody to slip up, not realizing that it would make me look bad, or me as a mafia member nominating Kusari, drawing attention to myself, then withdrawing my nomination, leaving nothing for my efforts but killing myself via getting you guys to nominate me?

 

[Seritinajii]

Maybe turbler is Music Dragon(r) and is trying to convince us to nominate her. I don't know, though. Because of that, I'm not going to nominate her.

 

[o_O]

Turbler is something, now that I think about it. Turbler's either Music Dragon (R), thinking / knowing that she's in her real form or whatever, and wants us to execute her so that she can win the game, OR she's the mafia and immediately is trying to change the subject from finding the mafia.

Or, of course, she might just be posting for the hell of it, but I'm leaning towards her being a twisted mafia member or Music Dragon (R).

Upon this evidence, I NOMINATE TURBLER!

Agree with all of the above. It all makes sense to me, at least....
So my leading candidate right now is Turbler, too.

EDIT:

Maybe turbler is Music Dragon(r) and is trying to convince us to nominate her. I don't know, though. Because of that, I'm not going to nominate her.

Music Dragon (r) dies automatically when killed at day.

 

[Bobino]

Sad to lose two on the first, day.

I'm going to agree with Ica's nomination, simply because there are no other real leads at the moment. They said they were trying to cause a slip-up, and unfortunately for Ica, the slip-up was theirs.

 

[Icalasari]

Sad to lose two on the first, day.

I'm going to agree with Ica's nomination, simply because there are no other real leads at the moment. They said they were trying to cause a slip-up, and unfortunately for Ica, the slip-up was theirs.

o.o What?

Like I said, if I was Mafia, wouldn't I pay more attention and go, "Oh, hmm, I shouldn't nominate Kusarigamatchi. People would be all over me for that, and I would SURELY be found out!"

Even if I was Mafia, would I then WITHDRAW MY NOMINATION and NOT nominate somebody else? Getting myself killed with nothing to show for it? No, because that would be one damned flawed strategy. Honestly, when I said it was a RANDOM nomination, I meant it! Heck, I planned to make the nomination when there were no posts, but I decided, "Nah, they will probably get a conversation going, and if nobody has any nominations by a certain point, then I will nominate him in order to get somebody to screw up"

>.> Paranoia already... Yeesh...

 

[allitersonance]

Well, actually, since you admitted you're new to this, it's not inconceivable that you would nominate me without realising that it would draw suspicion to yourself. If you knew that earlier, as an innocent you'd also want to avoid it until you had anything to go by. Whichever side you're on, you can easily slip up and draw suspicion to yourself, probably because you didn't think on something thoroughly enough.

e.g. nominating anyone in an attempt to get them to slip up. It's not particularly useful for an innocent to use because if you've got no reasons for the nomination, you can't provide proof or arguments to counter those reasons. And yes, because it seems immediately suspicious. The main reason to nominate people at random is usually because "we have to kill somebody so let's just pick this guy since he's not particularly useful as far as we know".

If people weren't likely to get suspicious for some reason or another, then it would be more useful for the mafia - an awkwardly-worded sentence might even provide "proof" or be considered a "slip-up". It could seem like a viable tactic if you don't realise how suspicious that might look in the eyes of others.

(It might be a decent innocent-side tactic irl because people could get flustered, but that would probably happen to an innocent too.)

So double-Wish does kill MD(R)? I was wondering. Well, that would make sense, since it deflects intents to kill rather than intents to heal.

As previously stated, killing turbler on suspicion that she's MD(R) won't help much because we'll never know if it's the case. And there's the danger of believing we did kill MD(R) if she shows up as an innocent, and not be on our guard once the real MD(R) transforms.

Still, yes, reasons for nominating her are probably as sound as those for Icalasari's. Both explainable by lack of experience, and both possibly mafia based on... one post?... that is probably the best evidence we can get at this point. turbler has the added bonus that we can say "Well maybe she was MD(R)" if she is revealed as innocent... which, um, may not be such a good thing since it's as likely that she's not.

imo Icalasari's evidence looks slightly stronger. (The mistake is more easily explained as something an innocent would do, in my mind. But the evidence still seems stronger.)

I have to say, though, if in truth they're both innocent... Icalasari is most likely to contribute to discussion effectively.


a.k.a. here, if you don't want to think for yourself, I put the obvious into words for you, part four.


ohey Icalasari posted again so um edit:

Paranoia is a big part of the game, and er the not-nominating thing could've been fixed closer to the end of the day if nobody else nominated anyone. Or maybe you didn't have another person you had any reason to nominate, and didn't want to repeat the same mistake.

And getting your mafia buddies to nominate someone is a possible tactic, because if you nominate anyone once you've been nominated it looks like you're just trying to stay alive, and therefore less valid somehow.

 

[Bobino]

It's very hard to decide first night, because we honestly have nothing to go off of. That's why I thought Ica's nomination might have been just that, a mistake. Now, all this back peddaling only makes me think that Ica's getting flustered, and proving their point in their initial post. While it will suck if Ica is innocent, I don't see any other options at the moment.

 

[Icalasari]

It might be a decent innocent-side tactic irl because people could get flustered

And I thought that would transfer over to the internet version. Sure, people can edit, but if they are flustered enough, then they wouldn't have enough sense to edit it right away, would they?

Also, pointing out one other thing (for everybody in general):

How beneficial would this tactic be to the mafia on the first round? Seriously, how beneficial would it be? After all, even if they stuck to the nomination, people would just NOT vote for Kusari to be offed. It would make no sense to nominate them at all then, unless the reason for it is, as I said earlier:

It was completely random

EDIT because I was ninja'd:

Kusari: Yeah, wouldn't you be panicked if people started to nominate YOU because you made a random nomination? Also, considering the mess the random nomination got me into, well, would it REALLY make sense for me to try to nominate somebody again when I have no evidence?

Bobino: Turbler happens to be another option. Heck, somebody who has posted very little would be another option

 

[shadow_lugia]

Kratos was one of the rivals. We also know that WUE is neither mafia nor one of the rivals.

...Why didn't I think of that D:

Anyway, I nominate no one yet. This speculation=epic confusion.

But I watch you all closely >.>

*is watching*

Ah damn, I blinked D:

 

[Byrus]

Just posting to say i'm here.

Nothing really constructive to say; this is my first game. I am pretty suspicious of turbler, but not Icalasari.

 

[allitersonance]

But innocents would get flustered too, as I said. So it roughly the same as irl.

Kusari: Yeah, wouldn't you be panicked if people started to nominate YOU because you made a random nomination?

Well, if they had arguments I knew seem sound against me, whether I'm mafia or not? Sure. But I suppose I'd look for ways to turn it around without panicking.

And as an innocent, I'd assume that the mafia is smart enough to decide, "hey, this person was suspected by everyone in the day, so we'll spare it - we can probably get people to nominate it some time in the future while we focus on killing the others, kekeke". If I could survive the first day of suspicion then that probably increases my chance of survival, because I don't expect to live to collect the points at the end anyway.

:(

I'm sure everyone can think of reasons I'd feel prone to death.

(Yes, I answer unnecessary things that'll increase my likelihood of dying even further, as if I needed it!)

Also, considering the mess the random nomination got me into, well, would it REALLY make sense for me to try to nominate somebody again when I have no evidence?

er didn't I say that:

Or maybe you didn't have another person you had any reason to nominate, and didn't want to repeat the same mistake.

if you nominate anyone once you've been nominated it looks like you're just trying to stay alive, and therefore less valid somehow.

It was in response to:

Even if I was Mafia, would I then WITHDRAW MY NOMINATION and NOT nominate somebody else?

Basically, I was saying that the answer to this question is, "Well, yeah."

 

[MurrMurr]

Nothing that I can bring to the table at this point, I agree that Kratos is probably a rival. No nomination, I think Icalasari is innocent (at least with the charges given).

*glares suspiciously at everyone*

 

[Seritinajii]

Music Dragon (r) dies automatically when killed at day.

I'm saying that maybe she was put on the death list somehow and got activated into the angry form, and therefore turbler, who may be Music Dragon(r), is trying to lure us into trying to kill her.

 

[Icalasari]

er didn't I say that:

Ah, sorry, I missed those

Also, I am going to elaborate on the last point in my post in case if anybody thinks about trying to use it against me (>.< Now I'M paranoid):

With how some people think I am mafia, mafia members would likely just stop posting/never post, or... wait...

Wait...

I nominate EvilCrazyMonkey

Just realized something. I made a newbie mistake. One one could use to turn everybody against me, thus killing two innocents in one turn. Could ECM have nominated me so that the Mafia can kill two innocents in one turn? It seems odd

Heck, they still 'suspect' me, as if to say to everyone, "His points aren't valid. He MUST be mafia! Kill him!" while in the back of his mind, he is going, "Heheh... This is almost TOO easy..."

So, it looks like my random nomination plan DID go according to plan... Just not in the way I expected ^^

 

[shadow_lugia]

I'm saying that maybe she was put on the death list somehow and got activated into the angry form, and therefore turbler, who may be Music Dragon(r), is trying to lure us into trying to kill her.

Just posting to point out you should refer as she/he or however you say it when you're talking about the role- oh wait, you're talking about turbler.

 

[Chiropter]

Gah! I leave for two days and two people are dead already! This is… distressing.

Um… huh. All these arguments and counterarguments and counter-counterarguments are hurting my brain right now… I’ll look over the thread and try to make an informed decision when it comes time to vote. I don’t really think I have anything to add to the discussion right now.

 

[Capitain Jay]

Right. So much evidence has been presented, we can't properly pin the blame on somebody. We just have to sit and wait. Wait until night, when the next murder shall happen. That will clue us in a bit better, and maybe we can unravel this cloth of deceit and death until we find the evil one who wrought this together.

oh good god did I honestly type that

Anyways. This is just a shot in the dark, because I have no idea whether they're Mafia or innocent but I nominate Turbler. Don't ask me why, I haven't the foggiest either.

 

[Negrek]

Poll on. Twenty-four hours to vote.

 

[Icalasari]

...What about my nomination for EvilCrazyMonkey?

D:

 

[Negrek]

Wasn't seconded.