Cats (2019) Mafia

[Keldeo]

I mean, I see what like Rari is saying about consensus-y-ness, and maybe my own reads are too consensus given that I am sort of in the consensus POE, but... I feel like given the Ultracool weirdness this mafia team seems somewhat unconcerned with their people dying, in general? That actually points in the direction of a misclear/deep mafia if RNP’s mafia but I don’t want to think about who that could be jsut this minute

 

[RNP]

i have literally never seen a mafia jailer

 

[RNP]

you're wasting a lynch and getting rid of one of your power roles bc "man suspicious"

 

[RNP]

it's complete bullshit and i'm sick and fucking tired of getting lynched as town because the town doesn't fuckin vibe with me

 

[Novae]

rnp is town by the way i just wanted to let you all know that

 

[rari_teh]

my professor who was supposed to be in class went completely MIA and left us hanging, so it’s mafia time ig

Tofu is a player in this mafia game and I still want to know about rari's theory of everything or whatever because I think Tofu's EOD pop-in about Ultracool with defense of Herbe looks fairly good for her.

fwiw my tinfoil of everything and everyone has fallen apart :c
i was doing a Herbe ISO and noticed a particular thing in a particular post (read: dogwhistle that nobody caught on) that almost completely threw my tinfoil out of the window
still there may be some things to take from it though

Like I think there's a more clear mafia than town motivation / world for his block last night, is the tl;dr.

I digress

I mean, I see what like Rari is saying about consensus-y-ness, and maybe my own reads are too consensus given that I am sort of in the consensus POE, but... I feel like given the Ultracool weirdness this mafia team seems somewhat unconcerned with their people dying, in general? That actually points in the direction of a misclear/deep mafia if RNP’s mafia but I don’t want to think about who that could be jsut this minute

fwiw there’s still some reasonable time until EoD
don’t jinx it lmao

 

[rari_teh]

i have literally never seen a mafia jailer

fwiw you could as well be Gus and a mafia roleblocker :T

you're wasting a lynch and getting rid of one of your power roles bc "man suspicious"

it's complete bullshit and i'm sick and fucking tired of getting lynched as town because the town doesn't fuckin vibe with me

i am most inclined to believe that you are telling the truth, unfortunately
but the only thing that stops me from actively campaigning against your wagon is the fact that two half-doctors plus one full doctor make zero sense in this scenario unless the mafia has something ridiculously OP
in other words, when you flip town i’ll vote herbe (who is the one who claimed that ILS was doctor)

rnp is town by the way i just wanted to let you all know that

i also think so, but you seem to know so
how do you know so, if you don’t mind saying

 

[qenya]

holy shit, uh, that was an eventful 24 hours to read through

I admit that the mech situation turns out not to have been quiet as clear cut as I thought, but, uh... very baffled by the subsequent direction the thread then took? like afaict it boils down to:

everyone: you're wrong, koko! there was probably another role involved
RNP: hello, I am the other role involved
everyone: seems implausible *lynches*

given that:
- RNP's claim explains what happened last Night
- nobody has presented evidence to contradict him
- the role RNP claimed is rarely if ever scum
does balance of probability not suggest that maybe he's just telling the truth?

tl;dr: I know this is a little pot-calling-the-kettle-black but I really think y'all are overthinking this

(1/?)

 

[RNP]

mist was being sarcastic and saying "wowie rnp is claiming town again? shocker"

 

[rari_teh]

but the only thing that stops me from actively campaigning against your wagon is the fact that two half-doctors plus one full doctor make zero sense in this scenario unless the mafia has something ridiculously OP
in other words, when you flip town i’ll vote herbe (who is the one who claimed that ILS was doctor)

to clarify why i’m not voting herbe instead of you: as per herbe’s post history and [redacted] i am most inclined to believe that he is town, while what i have towards you is just a strong townlean
if you flip green, though, i’ll still feel vindicated in a way

 

[RNP]

bc obviously we can't both be town

 

[rari_teh]

bc obviously we can't both be town

you can, but i would be side-eyeing jack for putting three healers in a fourteen-people game

 

[rari_teh]

just to be sure, i don’t remember where my vote is at and i frankly don’t want to be in the wrong side of history
bc i’m increasingly worried that herbe is just wolfing really well again
unvote if i didn’t unvote already

 

[rari_teh]

i am sure that at least one person is going to read over all of this and think that i’m w/w with rnp, and if he flips red i’ll be the biggest clown in the universe and scumread by many with a reasonable motive, but
like
what he’s saying makes sense. the logic checks out. ISO him if you haven’t
it is just an extremely against-the-grain read that, if true, is duping literally everybody here but rnp himself
it’s just
argh

 

[Trebek]

keldeo, what was your mentality at the end of D2 as far as UC vs Herbe?

I thought Herbe was pretty likely to be mafia mostly because of a narrative I was thinking about wrt his weird coinflip thing with Emmy's claim, and then of course he wasn't around at EOD to change my mind and I wasn't super swayed by any defenses of him / cases on UC. UC was more null / not my first choice target particularly given how often a midday 8-2 wagon is Just Town Here.

The morning of EOD I was balancing like, getting confirmation biased with people agreeing with me on Herbe vs. panicking about thread flow when the wagon swung a ton toward Herbe near the end. Ultracool's last posts just confused me, I kind of thought the claim was too out there to be a plausible mafia fakeclaim and sort of [kermitflailing.gif] rode with my Herbe vote at the end.

frankly, i vibe enough with this to disregard whatever weird tinfoil thinking i was doing last night

which is lowkey depressing bc now i have to try thinking about other things

and yeah i’m also like
deeply concerned
about mafia having a big foothold in towncore being the reason why everything is just sorta vibing atm

 

[kyeugh]

given that:
- RNP's claim explains what happened last Night
- nobody has presented evidence to contradict him
- the role RNP claimed is rarely if ever scum
does balance of probability not suggest that maybe he's just telling the truth?

i don’t think anyone thinks he totally made everything up, it’s just that he can be telling the truth and still be mafia, and it makes some sense for that to be the case.

 

[Trebek]

keldeo, what was your mentality at the end of D2 as far as UC vs Herbe?

I thought Herbe was pretty likely to be mafia mostly because of a narrative I was thinking about wrt his weird coinflip thing with Emmy's claim, and then of course he wasn't around at EOD to change my mind and I wasn't super swayed by any defenses of him / cases on UC. UC was more null / not my first choice target particularly given how often a midday 8-2 wagon is Just Town Here.

The morning of EOD I was balancing like, getting confirmation biased with people agreeing with me on Herbe vs. panicking about thread flow when the wagon swung a ton toward Herbe near the end. Ultracool's last posts just confused me, I kind of thought the claim was too out there to be a plausible mafia fakeclaim and sort of [kermitflailing.gif] rode with my Herbe vote at the end.

frankly, i vibe enough with this to disregard whatever weird tinfoil thinking i was doing last night

ok actually not fully disregarding: i am pretty sure keldeo and herbe are w/w, unless UC had a supremely impactful w!PR

 

[Trebek]

are NOT oops hehe

 

[qenya]

regarding the quantity of town doctors: I agree! doctor + jailkeeper + whatever mewtini is seems kind of ridiculous in what was originally a 14-person setup with 4 mafia (unless, and I know this is a stretch but I'm not quite ready to give it up yet, Jack didn't expect the jailkeeper and/or mewtini to want to operate every night).

(aside: considering that last game I apparently managed to successfully dupe everyone, including the rest of the mafia, into thinking I was one of no fewer than FIVE town doctors, I'm equal parts appreciative and exasperated that someone seems to be trying almost the exact same thing again)

but all this means is that one of {herbe, RNP, mewtini} is probably lying. mewt has a green copcheck that would require a series of highly implausible coincidences to explain away, and I've explained why I don't think it's RNP... which leaves herbe.

I was going to summarise the case against w!herbe here, but rari just handily did it for me, thank you rari:

as per herbe’s post history and [redacted] i am most inclined to believe that he is town

now, let's say for the sake of argument that he is indeed a rolecop, did check mewtini n0, and signalled it to her in a way that proved that's what happened. for the record I still don't like this "hey mewtini can just say people are town for Reasons and we all believe her! :D" thing, but I accept I'm in the minority there, and anyway the bit with herbe doesn't rely on that

consider:
- we clearly don't know everything the mafia do about their reasoning for targets (cf. Seshas)
- while mewt is being cagey about the exact details of her role (for good reason!) she's definitely not actually a full doctor or anything like that
- mewt, who is basically the town leader, has proceeded to put herbe in her towncore (going so far as to clear someone else based solely on his testimony) and everyone else is ~going with the flow~

so: why on earth are people taking it as virtually certain that w!Herbe would have killed mewtini above all else, when there's no guarantee she has a particularly strong role, and her survival has provided him with such an excellent return on investment so far? in fact I could see this being the mafia's plan from the very outset: their rolecop uses up a check to convince ultra-popular!mewtini that he's town, and then he's pretty much set for the rest of the game!

for this reason, I think herbe is the most sensible lynch at the moment and will require considerable convincing to change my mind.

tl;dr: my w!herbe theory that I earlier referred as "tinfoil" has been elevated to headcanon in light of new evidence.

(2/?)

 

[rari_teh]

ok actually not fully disregarding: i am pretty sure keldeo and herbe are [not] w/w, unless UC had a supremely impactful w!PR

considering how relatively easy he was bussed i am inclined to believe this is not the case