I was going to chew people out for revealing stuff this early in the game, but actually I'm starting to wonder whether the traditional received wisdom of "avoid hinting at your role, even vaguely talking about how powerful it is, to stop the mafia figuring out the best targets" is still valid? it seems like many actions have a cost in badges to use, which means they're useless unless you can successfully indicate to your townie allies how useful it would be for them to distribute theirs to you. I don't think I'm quite at the point of wanting to actually claim anything, but... hmm. anyone want to try to talk me into it or out of it?
this may or may not be koko trying to change metas. judging by how paranoid e tends to be i’m more willing to believe this is mafia trying to nudge town into giving valuable info.
hmm... i also noticed the problems rari/skytini/ysabel are pointing out with zori, but it seems to me a little too good to be true. zori is an excellent mafia player and I just can't see her involuntarily giving up this much evidence against herself. i know i tend to jump to this conclusion an awful lot, but i'm wondering if it may be worth considering the possibility that she's currently an activated alien?
i don't have a great sense of where i stand on anyone else yet, sorry. except possibly blu, who seemed extremely pure of heart, but then again he always does. i also haven't set up my usual spreadsheet yet so that's definitely hindering Thought Formation. gonna go back and reread vm, at least, tomorrow
With fresh eyes, I think Zori's behaviour yesterday was less blatant than it seemed at the time. I think possibly I was misled by the fact that everyone started talking about it immediately, but in context it wasn't really as much of an obvious I Am Scum as i was thinking. so I reckon I'm comfortable voting Zori, especially since there don't seem to be any viable counterwagons forming to Mr Ultracool, who I still think is pinging more town than scum.
one interesting pattern is that koko seems to directly defend town on d1 when e wolves. zori was 3p, but in the eyes of the ingroup it’s pretty much the same thing in this situation
I gotta say, I was astonished by both Seshas' and Herbe's flips. I was assuming that if Seshas was 3p at all she was an activated alien, and when I reread overnight I came round to the view of scumleaning Herbe (because his ISO mostly consisted of joke-FoSes, on me and others). So that was a surprise. I'm almost at the point of wondering if there's an ingroup at all, though maybe it's a bit premature to be thinking about that.
Sorry, "ingroup" was not quite the right word. What I meant is "coherent mafia faction", i.e., basically the the same thing as myuma just suggested, that there's just the town and a whole load of third parties. Like I said, though, I don't think I'm necessarily at the point of really believing this, it's just speculation for now.
since i killed hydrei, i had good reason to suspect that there was no mafia. the same cannot be said of koko. in hindsight this reads like mafia trying to steer conversation into pointless setup spec.
I guess the question we'd need to ask to differentiate the two possibilities is... in the world where Negrek is mafia, Hydrei was probably vigged, so is there a reason why the vig would have gone after him? It would have to be because of his tone, right? That would also imply the hypothetical vig didn't pay attention to the posts I quoted above, or didn't interpret them as possible cop softs. So I'd be interested in getting a quick straw poll of who did or didn't interpret them that way, to see whether it's something that a vig really ought to have noticed, or just my overactive pareidolia.
is it just me or is e openly fishing for a vig here? whoever didn’t reply that they saw hydrei’s posts as a PR soft would be the vig! this didn’t work out because my kill was submitted before d1, but mafia didn’t know that. all what they knew is that they were not responsible for hydrei’s death
Now... Having re-read most of Tofu's ISO, there are actually a couple more things that stand out to me as evidence for the Tofu/Blu w/w theory that I haven't seen anyone else mention yet. First off, her very first post contained this, which he immediately responded to:
Hey uh... Does anyone know when the times of the day and night phases end? Sorry if I missed it somewhere.
The phases end at 2am UTC! ^^
In isolation I wouldn't give that a second thought: she asked a simple question and he answered it. But it starts to become a bit more odd when they establish a pattern of call-and-response.
this really does not make any sense? blu immediately answered a meta question from tofu, ergo w/w? the only way i can interpret this is as an incredibly flimsy way of grounding an artificial SR on a townie through prolonged association, but even under that scenario this casing is especially weak
Of the two of them, I think I'd prefer to vote for Bluwiikoon. Why Blu, and not Tofu? We know, thanks to Mr. Ultracool, that Blu definitely performed an action on N0. Either, as VM says, Blu attempted to target me and was redirected to VM, or less likely, VM is lying/also mafia and Blu targeted him directly. There's any number of things that action could have been, but it happened before any deaths occurred, so it can't possibly have a badge cost. Speaking as the person he (maybe) tried to target with it, I'm not sure I want him to get off another shot.
once again, this is an especially flimsy grounding for a fake SR. koko seems to think that the very fact that blu has a night action and tried to target em at a previous Night should imply that he is mafia and/or worse than tofu if w/w.
The suspicious part is that she only "discovered" the second action after Blu inexplicably figured out exactly what it was, and then she appeared almost immediately after his post to acknowledge and confirm it, in a way that he'd previously done to several of her posts. I don't really see how that happens without some sort of coordination between them.
currently roughly reading rari & skytini as either v/v or w/w, and more likely v than w.
I suppose it's valid to wonder why, if he thought he had a cool fakeclaim idea, he didn't feed it to her privately rather than presenting it himself, but I don't think that's necessarily unusual; the two times I've been ingroup mafia here, I've been taken aback by how quiet scumchat is and how little coordination there is about what gets posted in-thread.
it’s interesting how all of your reads in this game were grounded around mafia having high coördination among them, but you seemed to change your mind as soon as i mentioned that w!blu providing tofu with a plausible fakeclaim didn’t make any sense
oh, this'll be good. always interesting to hear what people think my "meta" is.
if i’m not mistaken, your scumtell is being confident. it’s not like you’re not paranoid as wolf – you sure are –, but as town you tend to flail a lot and be very self-assured when it comes to your alignment. as soon as people put you low on their tierlists, i bet that you as town would at the very least question them. but you didn’t. then toDay, when i cast my vote on you without longposting, if you were town, i’d be damned if you wouldn’t go after me. but you all but pretended you weren’t being a candidate for lynching
in related news, i vibe with the standing counterwagon
