Snom Mafia

[mewtini]

if it isn't actually likely then i guess we can just vibe but i remembered mist bringing it up in cats and figured they were from seshas' meta

What’s this in reference to?

the provided fakeclaim idea (x)

 

[mewtini]

figured they were from seshas' meta

- so it could apply here more than the tcodf meta (where i'd never heard of a provided claim before, lol)

 

[Novae]

I would never put stock into an angleshoot in a seshas game tbh

 

[Bluwiikoon]

Gathered up some things I noticed on a brief D1 kokorico-centric skim, if someone else wants to analyse things Superjolt said, I think that would be handy Bear with me, mobile, etc etc

 

[Bluwiikoon]

@kokorico, could you give updated reads on me and Blu?

I would like to see eir updated thoughts on me/Blu.

Steady on! I do need to sleep from time to time :P

Regarding you, I concede I probably jumped to my conclusion a bit too quickly, out of excitability / wanting to demonstrate my read / feeling like 48h was shorter than it is, and on reflection you were probably right to find it odd. Sorry about that. But so far you still haven't actually displayed the "combativeness" I mentioned towards anyone other than me, or done anything else that pings me as scummy, and you've been engaging with the game, trying to figure things out and presenting your thoughts in real time. So I still consider you to be at the top of my town pile.

Blu, I'm wavering back and forth on. His bubbliness certainly isn't pinging me as particularly town-indicative, as it seems to be for almost anyone else, and I have the impression that he pivoted into mechanical talk much sooner in Cats (2019) than he is here. But equally, I can't really pin down anything solid that indicates scumplay. I also spotted a couple of things that, if he's town, might be a part of an attempt to set up a gambit for later - I'll avoid spoiling that. I would still dearly love to know what his reasoning was for asking the question in #121: both mewt and I have now asked him on separate occasions, but unless I missed it I don't think he ever responded.

(I know some other people asked me things overnight too, but I gotta go eat something. I promise to come back to them later.)

Underlined part is interesting - we didn't establish The Club properly until D2, so perhaps maf saw this and got frightened

sande, if you can't read everything, maybe you could ISO Superjolt and tell me what you think? Or give your thoughts on the early part of the thread?

@Bluwiikoon just curious, when you were writing your ISO on Trebek, did you already have in mind everything that you pointed out, or did you come up with it as you were reading? Is there anything that gives you hesitation on him?

--

Pulling up Superjolt posts:

Looking at koko - I still think the keldeo read was a little quick because that keldeo post doesn’t seem like it could be outside his scum meta but I’m also not sure if scum!koko would go for such a quick read? I feel like Koko sounded kind of unsure of eirself in eir posts last game as scum (at least from what I remember, or maybe that was in the early game?) but sounds pretty confident this time around. Kind of unsure here though, I also didn’t really follow the read on blu

Also speaking of koko and questions for me: (no quote sorry but it was in 244) I’m kind of against it for reasons others said and also similar to mewtini I like seeing how votes/ wagons come together and looking at those later @kokorico

Spoiler

Bluwiikoon - mentioned already that I get the same kind of pure Vibes as last game and this hasn’t changed (though Blu did feel a little more solvey on D1 in Cats I thought)

Mist - no opinion here, guess they never came in to give those Takes(tm)

sanderidge - I kind of want to say sande feels pure on tone (kind of similar to Blu but also maybe less so and with an asterisk that she does have more experience... if this makes sense? maybe need to revisit later)

kyeugh - kind of gave thoughts above already

kokorico - gave thoughts here too, still unsure here

Ysabel - seems alright so far? Her reads felt genuine at least. I did skim tho so maybe need to check over again

Keldeo - feels good so far and I don’t think I’ve had a problem with any of the questions he’s asked. I will note that I kind of felt the same way in Cats about him early on though. I also don’t support the wagon he’s started! On a serious note though not entirely sure how I feel about his vote on me, I think it would have been stronger if he had coupled it with more than just getting me to contribute, which I would have done anyway even without a vote (unless there’s actually more to it and I’m already forgetting)

mewtini- Getting similar vibes to last game where she was town so I think town

Trebek- thought he seemed ok early on but not sure now, he was tough to read last game

404 not found - Julia, Mr ultracool , m+7

hmm this feels like too many unsures/nulls... but this is where I’m at

Liiiight townlean for now on Emmy for #114 because I like that she asked this question in the middle of all the sillyposting, I think trying to spark serious discussion when things are mostly Not Serious looks good. I like mewtini based on tone so far, same goes for Blu and I like the excitement from Blu, so townleans there. Also kind of like Herbe who sounds legit excited to have rolled town. And if we're hypoclaiming, then Herbe is defintiely a lean green townie machine! Not sure about Seshas, kind of want to keep an eye there going forward maybe?

Quite a lack of voting so far, wish there were some votes being tossed around because it would help with vibes/reads (or at least for me!)

Spoiler

Up to page 18 and I see that Keldeo kind of has the same thoughts/reads that I had (esp. on mewtini and Blu, and later others have similar thoughts as well so I'm glad I'm not the only one there. I like mewtini more as I go as she seems to get more solvey (also thanks to mewtini for pointing out pages/posts to me!)

Seshas is someone I really want to reread/ISO

I feel like I should have some opinion on kyeugh at this point but I kind of don't so she's maybe worth a reread too? I do see more posts from her coming up after Keldeo's vote so maybe that will help out a bit

Also want to reread rari posts

Keldeo seems okay for now. I do like that he voted to get people talking (and for the record I do agree with Keldeo that it's never too early to vote!). I'm good with him being town for now.

ILS seemed to get town reads for flavor spec for some reason, and then even pointed out himself that it's not something that should warrant a town read but he doesn't really do anything else? Like, I feel like that should have been paired with something else like "you're right that me flavor spec'ing doesn't mean anything, now let me actually Do Things!" but he really doesn't do anything else, and the next time he posts is in reaction to Keldeo's vote on Trebek I think? I'm pretty tired now so idk if this makes sense. Part of me wonders if this may not be a bad place to vote?

I feel like I've got a handful of town, and then a ton of nulls but like not really any scum reads at this point so I feel like I'm missing something

Meh yeah I guess Superjolt was more confident or existent early in Cats. There's a decent gap in depth between the reads he gave here and, say, his read on ILS in this last post I quote.

I think the towniest thing Superjolt has done is maybe his question on Skylar because like... hmm... I guess it indicates that he was thinking "Skylar seems less towny than last time, what do people think of her?" here, but didn't talk about it until later. Background thought process.

While I’m here and thinking about it: where are people’s heads at on skylar rn? Just to see thoughts on this when I read up

Also, I'm on koko town right now, and mafia Superjolt probably could jump on koko instead of hedging out of an initial bad impression in that first post.

(Underlined section) Hmm

Thanks! I have a bunch of questions for you:

Are these ordered within tiers?

Nominally, yes, I tried to order them. But especially in the Grey Area (tm), it's honestly pretty arbitrary. For, uh, obvious reasons.

Who were the "several people" who pushed back on the Trebek read, iirc it was mostly me? Do you have any read on his recent real-time posting with MP7?

I think mewt and MP7 both made the same point? Don't quote me on that - I didn't note down the posts where it happened and it's not the sort of thing that's very easy to search for.

By the real-time posting, do you mean the stuff on page 25? (I wasn't there when it happened so I didn't realise it was real-time.) If so, I'm not really getting anything out of it at all, either when I initially read it or now I look over it again. There are only a few posts and the only thing that seems vaguely AI from either of them is the fact that M+7 was trying to establish a read on him at all. Am I missing something?

Could I ask you to go a bit more in depth about your sande and Superjolt feels?

Sure. My sanderidge thoughts haven't really changed much since what I said earlier, that she didn't react as if w/w with Bluwiikoon and had made a couple of towny posts. Slightly later on, she presented a slightly disorganised list of reads that lined up pretty well with my own, even though I hadn't talked about all of them in-thread yet. That made me feel a little more confident both in them and in her. But I don't have anything I would consider strong evidence either way yet.

Superjolt is probably the most scum-looking person at the moment, but that could also plausibly just be a lack of time/experience/interest. For example, he popped in very briefly at the start of the Day when it seemed like he might be coming under the microscope for inactivity, but didn't stick around for long. More recently, his reads list was really very thin on information and most people's entries boiled down to "idk". I was also a little bemused when, in response to my question about his opinion on the representatives idea, he cited mewtini's argument against it - but she didn't make that argument until after I asked the question!

(will continue from here in the next post because this is getting long and I want to get the above out there so you have a chance to read it with less EoD time pressure)

Koko seems like e was very vocally suspicious of Superjolt, which would be Bad if Koko lived past N1 I guess

Anyway, that's uhhhh some thoughts on why Koko got shanked N1? I wonder if they were a secret club member too

 

[Bluwiikoon]

Me: I would like to activate my brain!

Shower!brain: hehe words go brrrt

 

[Bluwiikoon]

I see kyeugh is online, and would like her to know that if town loses because I misfired, she's welcome to galactic punt my feeble snom body like an exceptionally buoyant soccer ball.

 

[Bluwiikoon]

Noooo you guuuys the sad reacts ;o;

I promise that came from a place of jest, and not a sad brain juice place! ^^ I'm doing good today

 

[Ys_]

Rip Skylar. Seems like my logic was flawed, but, um. I was practically convinced that if she had been town she would have voted for SJ for sure. Unless she knew something we didn't...?

On the secret club thing, I'm thinking I'm down with whichever. Is there a point in keeping it hidden anymore?

 

[Ys_]

~~Also, I'm the third mafia tbh~~

 

[sanderidge]

~~Also, I'm the third mafia tbh~~

i know you are joking but the Big reason that you saying "i didn't know the mafia chat was open during the day!" the other day made me panic was because i thought "what if i get red checks on all negative popularity and green checks on all positive popularity"
TO BE CLEAR i don't actually think that's what's going on w my checks but this reminded me of that

 

[Ys_]

i am, first and foremost, a dumbass
second i am a naive cop who gets red checks on anyone with negative popularity
i checked keldeo n0, ysabel n1, and mist last night
i have not gotten any red results lmfao so
i don't think i'm very likely to I Die Now but i wouldn't be surprised if i did

So you never checked Skylar?

 

[Ys_]

Can you please tell me your reasoning of those specific targets?

 

[sanderidge]

i never checked skylar because every night i checked the person i felt most suspicious about, which is why i did a wild 180 on you overnight and also why i'm sitting here like :l today because i feel like i have nothing to go off of

n0 i checked keldeo because that was the night i felt like i could get clearest results / no popularity shenanigans and i'm scared of keldeo lmao

 

[sanderidge]

i never checked skylar because every night *other than n0 i checked the person i felt most suspicious about, which is why i did a wild 180 on you overnight and also why i'm sitting here like :l today because i feel like i have nothing to go off of

n0 i checked keldeo because that was the night i felt like i could get clearest results / no popularity shenanigans and i'm scared of keldeo lmao

correction in bold

 

[Ys_]

That's fair. But why do you think you're a naive cop?
So do you think one of your checks was wrong?
Also, did you have any thoughts on Skylar's claim about knowing when she got role copped?

@Mist any thoughts on Skylar's vote on you?

@everyone I'm thinking MP7 was the person handing out guns and that was the reason they were killed. Could balance a mafia day killer.

 

[sanderidge]

That's fair. But why do you think you're a naive cop?
So do you think one of your checks was wrong?
Also, did you have any thoughts on Skylar's claim about knowing when she got role copped?

because... my role pm said so? :'D it specifically called me a naive cop and said that i would get red checks on anyone with negative popularity. it didn't say anything about positive popularity causing green checks but i think that is a kind of bastard mechanic to put in and not say anything about? which is why i stopped panicking some time after you explained things re: mafia chat is open during the day, the other day.
and before i sent in my actions i checked the votes that people were on, and unless there were nighttime popularity shenanigans i'm not aware of/i didn't see something, no one should have had negative popularity when i checked them. so i don't think any of my checks were wrong barring Very Bastard Mechanics that i wasn't told about or nighttime silent popularity changes, if there is such a role

re: skylar claiming she knows when she was rolecopped, iirc she also brought up a line of reasoning that keldeo agreed with for rolecop to be scum, so maybe that's why no one's claimed it :p but that's the only thought in my head. she could have also tossed out a wild lie to... draw someone out...??? idk? but iirc that was a really early point in the game and i don't think people usually claim that early? so i don't really think that's too plausible of a take.

i'm gonna post this and then go hunt down the quotes i'm thinking of

 

[Zori]

Apologies for being late to you guys on this
As rolecards do contain some degree of flavor, Mafia have been supplied example Power Role and Vanilla Townie rolecards.
This is so that they aren't outed off discrepencies in rolecard formatting.
I was cautious about because something similar happened in another game I hosted and someone almost had to get modkilled for it.

It likely won't affect the course of the game much, but I thought that since it's rare here, I wanted to let you know.

Continue.

 

[sanderidge]

i hav found the quotes i was looking for

Spoiler: skylar first mentions being rolecopped #869

i kind of think mp7 gets nightkilled in that case rather than blown up conspicuously in the middle of the day several hours in honestly. that’s a pretty small thing to use a terrorist charge on. my guess is that the mafia obtained information overnight that made them want to take mp7 out
i kind of do not like the idea of suspecting someone who i feel has made pretty good and insightful posting because someone who shaded them a bit got ded

this would imply that the mafia have a night killer, a day killer, and an investigator? or would some of those roles overlap? bc that might affect wether or not we think the popularity dude is town or maf

it would suggest that tbh! i should probably let the snom out of the bag here, part of my role is that i can tell when i get rolecopped—and i did, n0! so this chain of events suggests to me that the rolecop is scum, mp7 got checked overnight, and a mafia daykiller shot her shortly afterwards because she had a power role of some kind that they wanted to suppress. (they left me alone because my role is kind of useless, i expect.)

Spoiler: skylar mentions scum!rolecop again #953

Hmmm ok. I'm not too good with these sort of theories, but again, why not kill MP at night then?

they wouldn’t kill mp7 at night in this case because the result of their role inspection wouldn’t return until the morning. if they found that she had some kind of threatening role, it would make sense for them to blow her up right away rather than waiting for the next night.

And would it make sense for a mafia to have both killing roles?

it would be a weird move for town to nuke mp7 and no one’s fessed up to it anyway, so my assumption is that it was a mafia kill, at least.

Spoiler: keldeo agrees with trebek about rolecop being probably mafia #1012

also, i just thought of something:

would the whole speculation of mafia having a night killer, a day killer, and a role investigator semi-clear julia if it turned out to be true, since we know that all of those roles have been active in the past 48-ish hours?

My assumption is the night kill is a factional ability and could be sent in by any member of the mafia. Also, sorry if I missed you explaining it somewhere, but what makes you think the role cop is mafia? (I think if a role cop exists I kinda agree, but I want to know what you're thinking there.)

I guess I like that you had this thought.

i mentioned that because it was a line of reasoning that skylar brought up earlier. it was less of a "i think theres a role cop mafia" and more of a "if there is, what are the ramifications?"

 

[Novae]

@Mist any thoughts on Skylar's vote on you?

skylar is a dead villager why would I have those