Tarot Mafia

[Keldeo]

ngl idk why but i just had a great mental image of a terrorist going

“hey imma softclaim”
“bomb”

 

[Keldeo]

Trebek posted mostly about people who are now dead. rip.

Spoiler

I guess I vaguely like Seshas being the first to actually try to read Mist and trying to force a read on storm?

yeah, im still not sure about how i feel about what was said, but i like that something was said in the first place

I'm going to say that Herbe looks a bit worse for this

I don't follow, can you explain why?

The I think it's untrustworthy but I trust it anyways bit sounds like someone who saw an outgroup/3p signal and is defending and hedging at the same time

i guess this makes sense? idk to me it just felt like Herbe was contrasting the general mentality of that type of post with how he read this particular one, which doesn't seem too hedgey to me

Here's him townreading Herbe and Seshas early on. I note this because we now know both of them to be town. I'm kind of split about what all this means - I think it's possible that this means he was leaning on TMI to generate early content (which could point to Jack being town). Obviously he pushed on town kokorico later in the day as well.

Spoiler

im also between town and third party, but my gut wants to say that it seems just a little too obvious for mist to be outgroup? like, would an outgroup mafia really go about it in that way if our immediate response would be to ask if they are outgroup?

im fine with believing mist about the existence of a third party, but i have a feeling that mist's 35 is just a meme. not going to speculate further about this bc i dont want to get stabbed / i think that this speculation will be more useful when more mechanics are revealed

Posts about Mist for completion. Not really sure what to make of these, but I'm pretty much townreading Mist anyway.

Spoiler

as far as ultracool goes, i'm not sure how i feel. on the one hand, if hes telling the truth and we can get bonuses from visiting him, thats amazing and i applaud/support him coming forth with it D1. on the other hand, part of me is wondering if its too good to be true? like, what happens if mafia visit him - do they get upgrades as well? i guess part of me is just paranoid about something crazy like a w!paranoid gun owner? although to be fair i dont think that would line up with a Wheel of Fortune flavorclaim. i guess at the end of the day im townleanling uc, and glad that hes posting, but idk if i trust it enough to support a mass visitation to him N1, if that makes sense? brain confused
(jack's 150 i think sums up how i feel about this: its a ballsy claim regardless of wether its a v!wheel of fortune or a w!wheel of fotune, wether or not thats a good thing is yet to be decided)

like, what happens if mafia visit him - do they get upgrades as well?

Yes. Unfortunately, they do.

interesting :(

I want to townread Mr. Ultracool for Trebek's posting about him, despite a red flag of a push on RNP today from him. I feel like townreading Mr. Ultracool but also assuredly discouraging people from visiting him is like, exactly the opposite of what a partner to mafia bomb Mr. Ultracool would want to put out in the thread. I also think Mr. Ultracool is less likely to be a role like that given the existence of a terrorist, which is more scum killing power.

It's like possible that he's just a mafia goon or something and decided to claim randomly but like, there's no real agenda to that. idk.

Spoiler

ok it's time for mewtini to catch up and obnoxiously post while she does it <3 i am so used to like ... following the thread like a hawk because i've had nothing better to do in quarantine. imagine having to "catch" "up"

anyway brb

can’t wait to read ur catch up posts and be like “wow this makes so much sense how come i didn’t see it when i read it” to everything

also i’m not sure if i like the koko wagon yet but i believe trebek believes it and it’s improving my view of him

I kind of feel the same way! Like, obviously I know he's wrong, but if he were a wolf I would think there would be better/"easier" targets for a mislynch.

I guess
the reason I see it as potentially wolfy is because he's piggybacking off of mewtini's read?

this is admittedly something that i still need to work on w.r.t. my Mafia play: a lot of times i will read people's readposts and go "oh ok this makes sense how come i didnt think of this myself" which then results in piggybacking

i also think my initial post might not have put enough emphasis on my gut reaction to koko's vote on herbe and leaned too much on mewt's read bc that was a concrete thing i could cite

man i was kind of meh about trebek's changing meta and figured it was NAI but the recent posting is throwing me off a lot

in which direction?

Here are some quotes where he responds to or talks about mewtini. Notably the last quote is 10 minutes to EOD. I might be reading a bit too much into this, but I feel like this isn't how he would talk about a mafia partner. I can put more effort into articulating this if others disagree. I did think mewtini's thoughts on him were like really cogent about his mindset, which I was worried was TMI, but I'm gonna just say it was a cogent case.

idk how i feel about people side-eyeing jack's mechspec: this may just be a personal preference / a misinformed gut reaction to how people talk in thread, but i always get sorta weirded out when someone makes mechspec posts and then other people side-eye them over people who aren't actually contributing? this may just be bias on my part bc people who dont post also aren't typically the center of discussion, but its just something ive noticed. just feels weird to see someone getting side-eyed for what very well could be a genuine desire to contribute to thread, even if the only way they can do so is mechspec
(this is also probably just personal bias bc i feel much more comfortable making mechspec posts than vibespec posts/have a tendency to want to TR people just for contributing, so i probably just need to get over myself tbh)
(obviously, if someone only mechspecs for the entire game, thats a different story, but it seems like a weird thing to jump on D1 - again might just be me)

in re - start of M&F's 207: i dont really see jack's side-eyeing of seshas as a "collosal countertunnel," especially since as far as i see it, he posted about seshas in his big vibe post, and then brought it up a second time specifically when Keldeo asked him about it? i might be missing something in the ISO here, but i dont see jack's vibes as a negative thing rn

I'm putting this one outside a spoiler because I feel like I should be able to make something of how he reads Jack here, but I don't lol. I'll take another look later. If other people have thoughts on this, I'd love to hear them.

tl;dr: I feel fairly good about townreading mewtini and Mr. Ultracool. I'm not sure how to feel about Jack here. I remember both Trebek and Butterfree kinda defending Jack against people pushing up against his mechanical speculation. Jack's vote for Seshas then unvote is like fine or something? Both Jack and storm felt sort of... cavalier at EOD for having a partner up there.

 

[Butterfree]

what the fuck

 

[Butterfree]

I'm the Justice arcana and I have a one-shot power to make the player I choose lynchproof until the following day, which strikes me as a power that's not very useful for town at all but one way or another that's what I got.

 

[Butterfree]

Thoughts on remaining players:

To be honest I don't quite agree with everyone townreading Trebek encouraging people to believe Ultracool but not visit him? If Ultracool were a bomb, then yeah, that'd be weird. But suppose regular old mafia!Ultracool kind of walked into the thread brazenly making a fun claim without quite talking it over with his partners - perhaps the mafia has some role that'd make this potentially accomplish something, but then somebody else in mafia chat goes hey, no, that's a bad idea, if people actually target you they're going to realize you're lying about your role. At that point, the mafia do want people to townread Ultracool, but don't want people to target him and learn that actually he doesn't give out items for as long as possible. Right? It's only a possibility but I don't think it's impossible.

I've been getting the worst vibes off M&F for one reason or another, but I can't quite confidently say whether it's just a tone/playstyle thing or if it's legitimately suspect without ISOing her.

 

[JackPK]

I'm the Justice arcana and I have a one-shot power to make the player I choose lynchproof until the following day, which strikes me as a power that's not very useful for town at all but one way or another that's what I got.

This claim makes me feel a little weird but I want to wait for the rest of our lurkers to claim before I say why

 

[Keldeo]

I've been getting the worst vibes off M&F for one reason or another, but I can't quite confidently say whether it's just a tone/playstyle thing or if it's legitimately suspect without ISOing her.

I feel like she voted Trebek up to the lead yesterday in a way that didn't seem a lot like a bus. I feel like she gets no credit saying "huh well I think he would give us information". What do you think?

hmmmmm.... if nothing else, I feel like getting a public alignment check on Trebek might be pretty useful in terms of orienting our reads of others? so sure, might as well

 

[Butterfree]

I'm the Justice arcana and I have a one-shot power to make the player I choose lynchproof until the following day, which strikes me as a power that's not very useful for town at all but one way or another that's what I got.

This claim makes me feel a little weird but I want to wait for the rest of our lurkers to claim before I say why

I'm sorry, I'm not sure I see how getting everyone else to claim first would be a legitimate reason to withhold this information. If you want to still be able to catch someone in a counterclaim, explain the relevant evidence without revealing your arcana.

 

[mewtini]

I feel like she gets no credit saying "huh well I think he would give us information". What do you think?

i sort of remember reading mf's 464 feeling like she was taking some credit for the lynch but that's really flimsy

i go back and forth a lot on mf thoughts because i still don't feel great about her tone but i also don't know if i think her posting makes sense for a wolf, but maybe it's that i sort of ... chaos read them? which is maybe a more wolfy attribute than not

 

[mewtini]

I feel like I should be able to make something of how he reads Jack here, but I don't lol. I'll take another look later. If other people have thoughts on this, I'd love to hear them.

i kind of think this might not point towards w/w nor w/v tbh, it matches up with my [irl-ish] understanding of how trebek views the game (i will probably say the words "he likes mech and hates tonereads" in every mafia game we play together) and the comment he makes about "the only way they can [contribute] is mechspec" feels a lot like a projection of how he plays lol

 

[Keldeo]

I'm the Justice arcana and I have a one-shot power to make the player I choose lynchproof until the following day, which strikes me as a power that's not very useful for town at all but one way or another that's what I got.

This claim makes me feel a little weird but I want to wait for the rest of our lurkers to claim before I say why

I'm sorry, I'm not sure I see how getting everyone else to claim first would be a legitimate reason to withhold this information. If you want to still be able to catch someone in a counterclaim, explain the relevant evidence without revealing your arcana.

Can I ask, have you got any feelings on Jack in general?

 

[Stryke]

i go back and forth a lot on mf thoughts because i still don't feel great about her tone but i also don't know if i think her posting makes sense for a wolf, but maybe it's that i sort of ... chaos read them? which is maybe a more wolfy attribute than not

I don't have very many reads but this is one of the ones I do, I feel pretty much the same rn, tentatively; I wanna dig through the thread some more

 

[M&F]

h.

well, massclaim or no massclaim, we can't afford to dawdle on deciding a lynch target. at least, the good news about being LYLO'd at such high numbers is that, even if we were to take a total shot in the dark, the odds of hitting something good wouldn't be all that bad. so... I guess the only thing for it is to bring up the odds with a little PoE.

The Good
M&F - yadda yadda I read my own role PM this is only here for numerical clarity
Keldeo - first hand on the wheel that pushed Trebek off a cliff, so I feel reasonably safe investing faith here
Mist1422 - a bit early on the softclaim, but besides that, behaved pretty naturally for the role given

The Null
IndigoEmmy - just straight-up didn't play the game, for understandable reasons that ultimately leave us none the wiser about what alignment she randed
Storm - I appreciate the readiness to come forward, but this was a reasonably falsifiable claim, so I can't really afford certainity to it
Mr. Ultracool - h. nothing's left that really properly sheds a light on whether he's telling the whole truth or not. at least, at this point, he's not likely to be in-group scum, so, short of being outgroup scum, we can safely remove him from lynching consideration toDay
Zero Moment - lurking as alwayyyys.

The Bad
Mewtini - least of the bad, really; it's now proven for good that she's not w/w with kyeugh, but some of my earlier read stands, although on weakening foundations
Stryke - I admittedly ignored basically anything between him and RNP -- I frankly do not remember what role he claimed -- but get this: is it possible that RNP's mechanical leniency towards Stryke this time indicates w/w? sure, they both had to keep up appearances by sniping each other, but they also went unexpectedly easy on each other this rodeo
JackPK - sorry, Jack, I can't say your vibes have improved much since D1, and if anything, it feels like you're persisting on pure mechspec at a time when it's not natural to do so even for an old meta player.
Butterfree - did she ever state a reason for inactivity? because otherwise, I feel like she's been more of a goner than usual, even when she posts. and I did catch her claim just before I started this, and well... I don't like it; it smells of overly honest scum claim

 

[Butterfree]

I'm the Justice arcana and I have a one-shot power to make the player I choose lynchproof until the following day, which strikes me as a power that's not very useful for town at all but one way or another that's what I got.

This claim makes me feel a little weird but I want to wait for the rest of our lurkers to claim before I say why

I'm sorry, I'm not sure I see how getting everyone else to claim first would be a legitimate reason to withhold this information. If you want to still be able to catch someone in a counterclaim, explain the relevant evidence without revealing your arcana.

Can I ask, have you got any feelings on Jack in general?

They were good, but obviously since I know I'm town, this sets off some alarm bells (but can't be sure how seriously I should be taking them until he actually reveals what he's talking about, so the coyness is a bit frustrating).

 

[M&F]

Thoughts on remaining players:

To be honest I don't quite agree with everyone townreading Trebek encouraging people to believe Ultracool but not visit him? If Ultracool were a bomb, then yeah, that'd be weird. But suppose regular old mafia!Ultracool kind of walked into the thread brazenly making a fun claim without quite talking it over with his partners - perhaps the mafia has some role that'd make this potentially accomplish something, but then somebody else in mafia chat goes hey, no, that's a bad idea, if people actually target you they're going to realize you're lying about your role. At that point, the mafia do want people to townread Ultracool, but don't want people to target him and learn that actually he doesn't give out items for as long as possible. Right? It's only a possibility but I don't think it's impossible.

I've been getting the worst vibes off M&F for one reason or another, but I can't quite confidently say whether it's just a tone/playstyle thing or if it's legitimately suspect without ISOing her.

um, chief, did I read this right or are you talking about people "townreading Trebek", who flipped mafia??

 

[Butterfree]

Butterfree - did she ever state a reason for inactivity?

For the record it's mostly Art Fight; I've been doing finished colored/shaded art every day since the beginning of July, which as it turns out has sucked up my entire evenings and there is still a server error on TCoD when you try to view locations in Gen II where Crystal has swarms but G/S don't that I've had no time to fix yet which bothers me to no end aaaagh

 

[Butterfree]

Thoughts on remaining players:

To be honest I don't quite agree with everyone townreading Trebek encouraging people to believe Ultracool but not visit him? If Ultracool were a bomb, then yeah, that'd be weird. But suppose regular old mafia!Ultracool kind of walked into the thread brazenly making a fun claim without quite talking it over with his partners - perhaps the mafia has some role that'd make this potentially accomplish something, but then somebody else in mafia chat goes hey, no, that's a bad idea, if people actually target you they're going to realize you're lying about your role. At that point, the mafia do want people to townread Ultracool, but don't want people to target him and learn that actually he doesn't give out items for as long as possible. Right? It's only a possibility but I don't think it's impossible.

I've been getting the worst vibes off M&F for one reason or another, but I can't quite confidently say whether it's just a tone/playstyle thing or if it's legitimately suspect without ISOing her.

um, chief, did I read this right or are you talking about people "townreading Trebek", who flipped mafia??

Townreading Ultracool because of Trebek encouraging people etc. etc.

 

[JackPK]

I'm the Justice arcana and I have a one-shot power to make the player I choose lynchproof until the following day, which strikes me as a power that's not very useful for town at all but one way or another that's what I got.

This claim makes me feel a little weird but I want to wait for the rest of our lurkers to claim before I say why

I'm sorry, I'm not sure I see how getting everyone else to claim first would be a legitimate reason to withhold this information. If you want to still be able to catch someone in a counterclaim, explain the relevant evidence without revealing your arcana.

Not "everyone", just the four lurkers I thought we'd agreed earlier should claim before everyone else, but fair point, I'll go ahead

I have a one-shot power that can only be activated during the 10-minute grace period between the final vote count and the flip; I can PM VM to nullify the yeet and turn it into a no-yeet

Obviously this isn't a hard counterclaim on you since these roles could both conceivably exist together, but since they both essentially amount to different ways to turn a yeet into a no-yeet, they seem a little too overlapping for my comfort

 

[JackPK]

(I am saving my arcana claim for after the lurkers have claimed)

 

[M&F]

Thoughts on remaining players:

To be honest I don't quite agree with everyone townreading Trebek encouraging people to believe Ultracool but not visit him? If Ultracool were a bomb, then yeah, that'd be weird. But suppose regular old mafia!Ultracool kind of walked into the thread brazenly making a fun claim without quite talking it over with his partners - perhaps the mafia has some role that'd make this potentially accomplish something, but then somebody else in mafia chat goes hey, no, that's a bad idea, if people actually target you they're going to realize you're lying about your role. At that point, the mafia do want people to townread Ultracool, but don't want people to target him and learn that actually he doesn't give out items for as long as possible. Right? It's only a possibility but I don't think it's impossible.

I've been getting the worst vibes off M&F for one reason or another, but I can't quite confidently say whether it's just a tone/playstyle thing or if it's legitimately suspect without ISOing her.

um, chief, did I read this right or are you talking about people "townreading Trebek", who flipped mafia??

Townreading Ultracool because of Trebek encouraging people etc. etc.

alright, this makes sense now; phew, for a sec there I thought everyone else wasn't catching the fast-read slip-up of the century